Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
There’s a completely real possibility that Margaret Qualley is the only overlap between this category at the Oscars and here at Screenage Wasteland. The Substance is dominating our awards this year, and Qualley seems to be no exception. And critics just can’t control themselves either, as Qualley has picked up a few surprise nominations between the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. She has crept up into the supporting actress conversation and could now easily see a path to an Oscar nomination.
Katy O’Brian (Love Lies Bleeding)
Katy O’Brian drew enough interest in Love Lies Bleeding that I can almost guarantee she will have a nomination in this category despite also being a contender for breakthrough performance. She isn’t high on the Oscar radar, although at least a handful of experts on GoldDerby do predict her to get a nomination. But O’Brian is very likely to make our five on the strength of her performance coupled with attrition due to other contenders being either ineligible or underseen.
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
I don’t yet have enough to go on to say Grande is a lock for a Sawwy nomination, but she is definitely getting into the Oscars and could well win the whole thing. With enough contributors seeing Wicked and a relatively thin field, it’s hard to imagine Grande missing the cut.
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
The Brutalist is showing well across the board for awards consideration, and Felicity Jones is likely getting into the Oscar race with great reviews for her performance. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that The Brutalist will be widely available ahead of voting time, so it is improbable that Jones will make the cut (but maybe next year!)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Rossellini is probably getting an Oscar nomination after picking up some precursors already, but whether she can make the cut for a SAWard is another matter. She has a relatively small bit of screen time, but some SAW contributors are ready to fight for her inclusion.
Zoe Saldaña (Emilía Perez)
Saldaña might just be the frontrunner to take him a golden statue in this category, but could completely miss a nomination when the Sawwy competitors are announced due to a lack of interest in the film. This is also a case of probable category fraud, as Saldaña is a textbook protagonist of Emilía Perez, so even if she is nominated, it could be in the lead actress category.
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Deadwyler appears to be dangerously on course to repeating her previous Oscar snub for her supporting role in The Piano Lesson. Deadwyler infamously got shut out for her lead performance in Till two years ago. In both cases, critics have raved about her performances, but it may be that this movie is just not drawing as much interest from either The Academy or SAW writers.
Anjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
I’m not sure that Nickel Boys would garner a lot of interest here at SAW even if it were widely available for viewing; which it isn’t. Ellis-Taylor is right on the bubble for the fifth spot in this category at the Oscars. Critics Choice just named her as a nominee, while the Globes left her out of the competition.
Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
It’s looking less and less like Ronan will get into the Oscars five for her role in Blitz, which has dropped like a bomb with critics and is unlikely at this point to snag a single nomination. I haven’t seen any chatter about this movie among team members here either, which doesn’t bode well for a movie that has been available on a streaming platform for weeks now. She has the name recognition, but I don’t think Ronan is breaking into either category this year.
Anna-Sophia Robb (Rebel Ridge)
Anna Sophia-Robb is not on anybody’s radar for probably either of these awards. However, her performance in Rebel Ridge should not go unnoticed. Her character felt lived-in and real throughout the runtime; I could easily see this person existing in real life. it’s easy to do a caricature of a Southerner, but Robb brings a much more understated and therefore realistic performance to the bale.
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
It will take SAW writers heading to the theaters over the holidays for this pick to happen, but it seems like as good a guess as any with slim pickings right now. If Barbaro can maintain the goodwill from her performance in Top Gun: Maverick, it’s easy to see this awards body sliding her in to fill out the top five. Critics have celebrated her performance, which is currently ranked ninth on GoldDerby.
Very few people are talking about Rebecca Ferguson for any awards, and never really did even when Dune: Part Two was surging strong. But looking at this field, It’s hard for me to believe Ferguson should be left out of this conversation. She has a commanding and intimidating presence throughout the movie that plays an integral role to the story. A shoutout, at least, is in order.
Predictions
Oscars
- Ariana Grande
- Zoe Saldana
- Isabella Rossellini
- Margaret Qualley
- Anjanue Ellis-Taylor
SAWards
- Katy O’Brian
- Margaret Qualley
- Ariana Grande
- Isabella Rossellini
- Rebecca Ferguson
My Five
- Ariana Grande
- Sandra Hüller
- Margaret Qualley
- Julie Babin
- Anna-Sophia Robb