Hello, and welcome to the first-ever edition of Poll Position with your humble host Jacob Holmes.
Oppenheimer took home the coveted Academy Award for Best Picture on Sunday night—no surprise if you have been following the race, as the explosive blockbuster biopic has led the pack for months.
And that’s what this new series is all about: who’s leading in the Oscar races (and occasional thoughts on who is likely leading for the even-more-important SAWards) and how that changes over the course of the season.
And although we just celebrated the big night, it turns out there’s no off-season between races! In this edition of Poll Position, we’ll talk about Dune: Part Two and its impact on the still-fertile landscape of the 2025 Oscar season.
It may be way too early to be making this prediction, but take me as a Bene Gesserit whispering in your ear, speaking prophecy into existence.
Back at the 94th Academy Awards, Dune (do we call it Dune: Part One now?) was nominated for 10 Oscars, second only to The Power of the Dog, which was nominated for 12.
But Dune walked away from the awards show with far and away the most wins by earning six victories in the technical categories, despite not winning any above-the-line gold.
If Dune 2 had come out in 2023 as originally intended, it would have had much stiffer competition for those technical awards, especially considering the technical dominance of Oppenheimer and Poor Things. And there’s no way it could have kept up with Oppie’s four awards above the line.
But due to the actors’ and writers’ strikes, Dune 2 didn’t have to compete in that lineup and, looking ahead, appears to have a strong case, particularly in the tech categories.
With critics and audiences alike praising the sequel even more than the original, it seems a no-brainer that Dune 2 will at the very least be nominated in the same categories as last year.
I shudder to imagine how anything could top it for a visual effects win, not just this year but any year. I’m not sure how you get much better than this. The score is more vulnerable, particularly because it is no longer completely original but recycling themes from the first movie. Most everyone has praised the sound design, cinematography, production design, and editing—it could even pick up a win for costumes or hair styling and makeup depending on the competition.
The real question is whether that will once again be all the hardware it should expect, or if it can actually pull off a win above the line. The most notable snub of the original movie was the lack of a nomination for director Denis Villeneuve—I don’t see how he will be denied here.
The acting categories will be tougher to crack. Some have postulated that Austin Butler should be considered as a supporting actor for his psychotic turn as Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen, or perhaps Javier Bardem for his performance as the sometimes humorously, sometimes frighteningly religious Stilgar. Perhaps Rebecca Ferguson could find some love for her terrifying performance as the Reverend Mother. It’s more doubtful that Timothée Chalamét or Zendaya will be able to nab lead actor nominations.
Will that be enough to lift the movie to a Best Picture win? It will certainly be nominated again, but is it still too much of a “genre” film to win it all? It certainly has the inside track right now, but with the Oscars season just starting, it will have to hold that momentum for a long time. But what movie can close the gap? Will it be another blockbuster sequel like Gladiator II, or will it be a smaller, more intimate film like A24’s Sing Sing? And undated projects such as Francis Ford Coppola’s hopeful magnum opus Megalopolis, and Steve McQueen’s war drama Blitz loom as potential heavy hitters.
While its fate for Best Picture at the Academy Awards is uncertain, I feel far more comfortable with its track to take home the prestigious Best Picture award at next year’s 6th annual Screenage Wasteland Awards. Screenagers voted Denis Villeneuve as best director last time around, although Dune fell to Spider-Man: No Way Home for Best Picture that year. Screenagers are much more likely to celebrate a strong genre picture, and with no clear competition in the superhero category, I think Dune: Part Two may just prove itself to be the Lisan al Gaib.