Welcome back to Poll Position. It’s been a while. During the offseason, we’ve focused on our Poll Position podcast with my co-hosts Bryan Loomis and Raf Stitt, plus special fill-in guest Valerie Morreale.
But with Oscars season now officially in full swing, it’s time to get back to regularly scheduled blog posts!
Venice came and went and crushed my dreams for After the Hunt and Wizard of the Kremlin. The Wizard of the Kremlin was always a long shot, but it’s rough to see it overcome the barriers to a 2025 release only to sink based on quality. After the Hunt has such a good script, I put all my chips in for that movie including acting nominations for Ayo Edebiri and Andrew Garfield. It appears that Luca Guadagnino’s take on the material falls flat, but I’ll always have that first version of the movie I directed in my head while reading the script—and that one is a Best Picture juggernaut.
It wasn’t all bad for me at the festivals, Hamnet rewarded my faith in Chloe Zhao with spectacular reviews out of Telluride. My other ride-or-die Frankenstein is also getting good reviews, but not good enough to feel confident that it will crack the field of 10. Jay Kelly stumbled out of the gate at Venice, but got better reactions out of Telluride, and House of Dynamite reviews appear to be pretty good too. So it will largely depend on where Netflix puts its power. Fingers crossed for Frankenstein.
And, of course, One Battle After Another took the race by storm and is now considered by most everyone to be the frontrunner for Best Picture. People are also getting silly and predicting six acting nominations for it—I am capping it at four personally, but more likely three.
That’s enough recap. Let’s jump into some bold predictions now that we have some reviews to go off.
Hamnet will win Best Picture.
Everyone seemed to be clinging to Sinners and Sentimental Value as the top two dogs in the Best Picture race until OBAA came to town, but I am chalking that up to pundit inertia. These two films have been the only locks for months and I think a lot of people have become attached to their ideas about those movies being unbeatable.
It’s easy to chalk up the win for OBAA with its high marks from critics and audiences, but Hamnet is not far behind with critics. In fact, there is still a chance that Hamnet could catch up to OBAA’s 95 on Metacritic as Hamnet has a 90 with only 15 reviews. And while audiences are currently obsessing over OBAA, they’ll have to wait until mid-December to even lay eyes on Hamnet, which could allow it to peak at just the right time. Not to mention the other big contender that drops in December: Marty Supreme is getting rave reactions from its New York Film Festival premiere and is another strong player for Best Picture. Those two films are bound to dominate the conversation in December.
What Hamnet has that those other films lack to a degree is an emotional gut punch that could lift it to victory. It’s not all about preference though. So many heavy-hitters could lead to a surprise thanks to the preferential ballot system even if OBAA gets the most first-place votes.
Wicked: For Good will claim more noms and wins than Sinners
At the risk of sounding like a Sinners hater, I am coming in hot with my projection that the Wicked sequel will outclass Ryan Coogler‘s masterpiece in both nomination count and amount of wins. If the buzz is real, Sinners could overcome Wicked at least on wins. But nomination count is going to be TOUGH.
I have to scoff at the folks who predicted Wicked would somehow score less noms than its predecessor. Now, if the movie FLOPS, this all goes out the window of course, But as of today, those murmurs that Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would not be nominated again look ridiculous. Grande is the current favorite to win supporting actress and Erivo is solidly in the Best Actress race. Adding to the trophy count, everyone believes the two new original songs are getting in, something that couldn’t happen last year.
There is no reason to believe it won’t get nominated once again for awards it has already won or heavily competed for: costumes, production design, hair and makeup. Thanks to the acting noms and the extra song, this could easily be looking at up to 14 nominations.
Sinners will need Michael B. Jordan and some supporting actor in the mix to topple Wicked. There are other routes—maybe Wicked misses editing this year, or perhaps it is ineligible for score (many people think this, but I think it will qualify). But for every opportunity to miss, there is an opportunity to pick up a category too. Perhaps in cinematography or adapted screenplay.
As far as wins, I have Wicked picking up statuettes for Best Original Song (directly robbing Sinners), Best Casting (which could easily flip to Sinners and even the tally), and Best Supporting Actress for Grande. I have Sinners firmly winning Best Score and I tentatively have it for Best Editing—but that’s a tricky category to predict right now.
Best Picture predictions
You already know my thoughts on what movie will win this race, but it’s time to make new predictions all the way through. There are six no-brainers here for me, with the caveat that Wicked: For Good is unseen. Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Sentimental Value and Wicked: For Good are all in.
Next we have a sure bet that at least one of Neon’s other international films will be selected, maybe both. I think It Was Just an Accident, the winner of the Palme d’Or, has a slight edge to make the cut over Park Chan Wook’s No Other Choice. But I am becoming more and more swayed by the idea of both getting in.
It’s hard for me to think Netflix will blank entirely: House of Dynamite currently has the better Metacritic score, but audiences are reacting pretty negatively to the ending now that it’s out in limited theaters. We’ll see what happens once it hits streaming. Frankenstein has the lower Metacritic score, but performed really well with TIFF audiences and has a lot of tech nominations I predicted it back in March, so forgive me for sticking with it.
Rounding out my 10, I have Avatar: Fire and Ash. The trailer looks incredible, and I can only hope that the screenplay is an improvement on the last two. IF that happens, it could bolster the franchise film into that final slot. Otherwise, we may be looking at Bugonia or The Testament of Ann Lee slipping in.
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
- Sentimental Value
- Wicked: For Good
- It Was Just An Accident
- Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
- Frankenstein
- Avatar: Fire and Ash