It’s getting later in the year, and that means Oscar season is well and truly underway—especially as numerous film festivals over the past week or so have revealed numerous new contenders while stalling out others.
Probably the biggest movement comes from The Brutalist, which has surged forward from relative obscurity to rave reviews that have called it an American epic on the level of The Godfather and There Will Be Blood. That’s towering company for the three-and-a-half hour tale of a Jewish architect making a life in America following World War II. And on the heels of high praise came the purchase of American distribution rights by none other than A24, securing the projection that the film will make the cutoff to compete in this year’s competition.
A24 has been buying up Oscars’ ponies left and right and looks like it may have just bet on the right horse by betting on all of them. Earlier this season it snapped up an early hopeful Partenhope that flamed out at Cannes despite some Best Picture potential. And it just recently bought the rights to Luca Guadagnino’s Queer, which certainly has Best Actor aspirations for leading man Daniel Craig despite festival reviews bringing into question its Best Picture odds.
A24 has had one Best Picture play in its back pocket all year with Sing Sing, which actually debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2022. Once considered the frontrunner for Best Picture, a very limited theatrical rollout for the film has cast doubts on its chances for a win.
While The Brutalist shot to the front of the race, Joker: Folie à Deux appears to have suffered a blowout. The film premiered at Venice to mixed reviews and although the first film was also divisive and still made the cut, there’s a different feel here that has most people counting the film out in the BP race. Whether Gaga or Phoneix might be able to slip into their respective acting races remains to be seen.
A wildcard is still on the table as The Life of Chuck just took home the coveted People’s Choice Award at TIFF, which has Best Picture buzz on the table assuming the film can find a distributor that will release it in time for competition. The movie is helmed by horror maestro Mike Flanagan directing a rare non-horror project, adapting a non-horror novel from horror legend Stephen King.
A big-time below-the-line frontrunner appears to have fallen out with Samuel L. Jackson reportedly not being a standout role in Netflix’s The Piano Lesson. Many had Samuel L. Jackson as the favorite for Best Supporting Actor, but based on reviews I doubt he will even be nominated. It is Danielle Deadwyler instead who is garnering the attention with a performance that many suspect will put her in the race for Best Actress.
The animated race is also heating up, as the reviews for the premiere of The Wild Robot have exceeded expectations and make for an exciting race to come between it and Inside Out 2. The Wild Robot might even have to be considered the frontrunner at this point—we will see how it does with audiences. Dreamworks definitely has the sway despite a low track record of wins to pull off a win.
There’s also Memoir of a Snail, which debuted to rave reviews. The stop-motion film is a work from previous Oscar winner Adam Elliott, but it is being distributed by IFC Films, which history shows will have a hard time competing against juggernauts like Pixar and Dreamworks when they both have excellent films in the running.
Conclave and Nickel Boys both seem poised to stay in the Best Picture race for now after receiving solid to great reviews from their debuts. Anora is still likely in as well based on its Palme d’Or win at Cannes and a theatrical debut to come.
With Joker falling, Warner Bros. has decided to now release Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 this year after all, which had been rumored to be put off til next year. The film stands a chance at a couple of Oscar races including even Best Picture, but definitely a potential screenplay nom and supporting actress for Toni Collette.
The fall of Joker also clears an obvious path in my opinion for Gladiator II, which could have slid in any way, but how many slots can go to blockbuster sequels? It looks like Gladiator could join Dune 2 in that regard.
Emilia Perez continues to receive strong buzz and that looks to be the safest BP play for Netflix this cycle, so I think it gets in. Some unknowns include, no pun intended, A Complete Unknown and Blitz. The former is a biopic of legendary folk musician Bob Dylan, who will be portrayed by Timothee Chalamet, while the latter is a World War II drama focused on the bombing of London by director Steve McQueen. Both films are still sight-unseen for almost everyone—I have Blitz solidly in the BP race and am currently leaving A Complete Unknown out of my predictions, but it’s right there on the bubble.
Here’s my new Best Picture lineup following the festival, which I’m sure will change up a whole lot over the course of the season:
- The Brutalist (A24)
- Sing Sing (A24)
- Anora (NEON)
- Conclave (Focus Features)
- Blitz (Apple)
- Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
- Nickel Boys (Amazon)
- Emilia Perez (Netflix)
- Gladiator II (Paramount)
- Juror No. 2 (Warner Bros.)