Poll Position: It’s Oscars Nominations Week

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Welcome back to Poll Position as we await the very thing we’ve spent weeks examining: who will get a coveted nomination at the 2025 Oscars ceremony?

Oh boy, have some precursors thrown a lot of curveballs our way in just the past week or two. Things we thought we knew have been thrown out the window. The Best Picture race has turned into a wild slugfest and nobody is sure who will come out on top.

I’m going to lock in my final predictions for who is getting nominated and winning (in every above-the-line category and select below-the-line categories) and discuss the state of the races for the major prizes.

Best Picture

I’ve been saying pretty much all season since The Brutalist made its festival debut that this race is going to come down to The Brutalist and Anora. The Golden Globes rocked that confidence in Anora with Mikey Madison missing out on the Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical to Demi Moore, but all signs coming out of the Globes had Brutalist right on track for BP.

The Screen Actors Guild awards blew that up though, ignoring Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones in the supporting actor nominations and snubbing the film in its “Best Ensemble” award—its version of Best Picture. The SAGs had shockers all over the place, giving more recognition to Wicked and A Complete Unknown than expected.

Emilia Perez bizarrely continues to get lots of nominations everywhere, with a strong showing at the Globes in particular. There’s a sense that Conclave could emerge as the winner simply by being the least divisive of the pack.

The Substance has had mostly a strong showing in the precursors, with even Margaret Qualley getting more love than expected. I think it rounds out the locks at this point for a total of seven locks: The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Perez, Conclave, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, and The Substance.

The last three spots are going to be a battle. Most people still believe Dune: Part Two is a lock, and let’s hope it is, but with Villeneuve being snubbed in director left and right I wouldn’t be shocked on Friday if we end up with no Dune as the noms are announced. Former frontrunner Sing Sing is just sink sinking to the bottom with little awards acclaim outside of Domingo’s acting nominations. A Real Pain is also on the bubble despite Kieran Culkin sweeping in the Best Supporting Actor race. Nickel Boys has lived on the bubble most of the season and it’s a coin flip now as to whether it will get in. September 5 has been faltering in the awards race, but still has an outside shot to fit in the final 10.

Final prediction:

1. The Brutalist (winner)
   
2. Anora
3. Emilia Perez
4. Conclave
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. The Substance
8. Dune: Part Two
9. Sing Sing
10. A Real Pain

Best Actor

This is the one field that has remained pretty steady throughout the race. The surprise will be who wins, not who gets nominated. Adrien Brody took the globe in Best Actor — Drama, which is a good first step. But there’s a shot that Timothee Chalamet could overtake him for his portrayal of Bob Dylan. There’s an outside shot for Colman Domingo or Ralph Fiennes to win as well; Fiennes could get an extra boost if people are voting Conclave for Picture. Maybe Hugh Grant or Sebastian Stan could slip in for the fifth spot, but the five at SAG will likely be the five here, with Daniel Craig in that fifth seed.

Final prediction

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) (winner)
   
2. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
4. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
5. Daniel Craig (Queer)

Best Actress

I questioned people believing anybody but Mikey Madison was going to take this trophy home on Oscar night, but Demi Moore‘s Golden Globe win and speech majorly rock that confidence. Cynthia Erivo also could still be in play, with Wicked having major love from the SAG branch. Karla Sofia Gascon should round out the locked four with love for Emlia Perez giving her a boost. The final slot is wide open: Angelina Jolie has just been kicked around endlessly and appears to be on the outs, could Marianna Jean-Baptiste fill her spot? How about Pamela Anderson, who just got a nomination at SAG for The Last Showgirl? Maybe Fernanda Torres off her Globes win for I’m Still Here. This is going to be tough.

Final prediction

1. Mikey Madison (Anora) (winner)
   
2. Demi Moore (The Substance)
3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
4. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
5. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Best Supporting Actor

There’s no real question about who is going to win this race: Kieran Culkin is the closest thing to a lock we have in the above-the-line categories. There was some thought that Guy Pearce could maybe pull off a surprise win for his work as the antagonist in The Brutalist—then SAG left him completely off its list. He has enough support elsewhere to expect he’ll make the cut. Also moving perhaps up the ranks is Yura Borisov of Anora. He has consistently picked up nominations, including at SAG, that reaffirm his likelihood of getting a nomination. The final two spots seem to be up for grabs between Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Clarence Maclin is unfortunately on the outside looking in here.

Final prediction

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) (winner)
   
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
3. Yura Borisov (Anora)
4. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Best Supporting Actress

The race here is firmly between Ariane Grande for Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Perez. The race past those two has become an all-out brawl. Saldaña took the Globe, which does not bode well for Grande. But if Grande can pick up the SAG, it will still be neck-and-neck to the finish line.SAG really shook this category all up—before those announcements last week, Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) were looking highly likely, if not locked in. But then SAG went and snubbed them both to add in Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), and Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown). That trio has barely had any success outside of SAG, but SAG also has an outsized influence on these Oscar nominations in particular. My best guess is that Qualley and Rossellini will still make it in for the Oscar and that last spot is wide open. But maybe the Oscars will give it to Deadwyler, if not for her performance, for her previous snub for Till. 

1. Ariana Grande (Wicked) (winner)
   
2. Zoe Saldaña (Emília Perez)
3. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
4. Isabella Rosselini (Conclave)
5. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)

Best Director

Even if the race doesn’t ultimately come down to The Brutalist and Anora, it still feels like one of those two directors is going to win this category. And now it’s beginning to feel crystallized that Edward Berger (Conclave) and Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) are going to make this field as well. Denis Villeneuve is dead in the water. That last spot seems to be between Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) and Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys), although the Director’s Guild went sideways and chose James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) to fill their fifth slot.

1. Sean Baker (Anora) (winner)
   
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
4. Edward Berger (Conclave)
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Best Animated Film

This has been one of the easiest groups of nominees to predict all season, but the winner just got harder to nail down. While The Wild Robot has been the presumed frontrunner since it debuted in September, Flow has proven to be the little indie that could ever since its festival debut at Cannes—culminating with a surprise win at the Globes. Inside Out 2 is a solid third while Memoir of a Snail and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl round out the category.

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

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The 97th Academy Awards nominations will be announced on January 23, 2025.