This week on Poll Position we’re looking at which actors have the strongest odds right now in the Oscars race, and how radically different this category might look here when we hand out SAWard nominations.
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
One actor who will very likely make both lists is Ralph Fiennes for his work in Conclave. Anyone who has seen the movie knows this is pretty easily one of the top five performances of the year, and could even be the winner as the film seems to be holding strong with The Academy so far. He is practically the front-runner if not for the towering performance of our next entry on the list. The only real challenge for Fiennes to get a Sawwy nom is how many contributors will have seen Conclave before voting. But it has been out for a while now so I don’t see much trouble there, and we have already shown our love for Fiennes two years ago when he got a nom for his work in The Menu.
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
The other big frontrunner in this category is Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. Critics have raved about his performance, which is the driving force of the story and this film could be one of the strongest contenders in the Oscar race with a great shot at winning Best Picture as well. We don’t quite know the exact release strategy for this film yet, but the heavy odds are it won’t qualify for this year’s SAWards, so that opens up an extra spot for another actor to grab some attention.
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
This is another performance that could get awards from both The Academy and Screenagers. Sing Sing was considered the Best Picture frontrunner for a long time. While its stock has fallen, Colman Domingo is still looking to repeat as an Oscar nominee after his nomination for Rustin last season. He is the beating heart of the film and one of the few actors that isn’t actually from the Sing Sing prison theatre program. There has been some praise for Domingo already here; the biggest challenge as always will be how many contributors see his work, as A24 has completely botched the release of this movie for months.
Timothee Chalamet (Dune: Part Two / A Complete Unknown)
Early reviews for A Complete Unknown signal that Chalamet will earn a spot in the top five this year for his transformation into the singer-songwriter legend Bob Dylan. He could theoretically notch a Sawwy nom as well for his portrayal of Dylan, but I think it may be more likely that this awards body instead honors his performance as Paul Atreides in Dune: Part Two. We are a bit warmer on Dune than most and everybody has had a chance to see it. I think our voters may appreciate his performance more than critics at large.
Daniel Craig (Queer)
At this point, it’s hard to see who else can fill out the top five in the Oscars race if not Craig. GoldDerby has Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain and Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice as next in line and … yeah, I just don’t see those two happening. Daniel Craig is supposedly very good in Queer, even if the movie proves too experimental for the Academy. I have no clue right now how this could fall in the SAWards, whether people are interested in it and honestly how much opportunity there will be to see it before voting commences. Right now, I’d say Craig won’t make the cut for us.
James McAvoy (Speak No Evil)
McAvoy has no chance of even sniffing the Oscars race, but dadgum it, I am stumping for him in our Sawwy race. Speak No Evil could have well been a rote remake of a foreign film for an American audience, but McAvoy elevates it so far beyond that. He is effortlessly charming one minute and disturbing the next, seamlessly flowing between the two and putting on a showcase. We’re more accepting of genre fare here, so maybe he gets in. However, I’m not really sure where he stands with other writers.
Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Speaking of excellent horror turns with no real shot with the Academy (GoldDerby does have him at number 12 though), Hugh Grant is just delightful in Heretic, just like McAvoy is the single elevating factor in his film. While the screenplay and other performances are also excellent, the film really hinges on Grant bringing it, which he does in spades. This could easily have been a forgettable mid-tier horror film if it wasn’t for this performance and I’d fight to get him in.
Glen Powell (Hit Man)
We are clearly through discussing Oscar contenders: we are all Sawwys at this point. Powell is really coming through strong as the blockbuster star of our generation, turning in a great performance in Twisters to follow up Top Gun: Maverick. But he really gets to show off his acting chops in Hit Man, particularly portraying different hitman characters to set up individuals with murderous intentions. I loved those impersonations, but I never felt like I fully bought into his actual character from the start: a meek philosophy professor. And then his other main performance, stuck in one particular hitman role to woo a girl, is just very close in vein to his Top Gun and Twister characters. I wouldn’t fight this nomination too hard, I’m just not its biggest supporter.
Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
I still have to watch this, despite buying it several days ago on Prime. One of my most anticipated movies of the year, but want to watch it in the right frame of mind. He’s actually number 10 on Gold Derby for this race (behind himself at number 7 for his portrayal of Donald Trump in The Apprentice). I don’t know if our contributors are scrambling to see this movie or not, it’s been hard to access, but it seems like the kind of movie and performance we could get behind if it gets enough eyes on it.
Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
I don’t know what the Sawwy odds are on this one, but worth mentioning Garfield as he is a bigger name and is apparently very good in this film across from Florence Pugh in an emotional and touching love story that spans decades. Predicting Sawwys is tough when it comes to reading the pulse of our team and trying to grapple with not only what they’ll vibe with, but what they will watch in time for voting.
Predictions
Oscars
- Adrien Brody
- Ralph Fiennes
- Colman Domingo
- Timothee Chalamet (as Bob Dylan)
- Daniel Craig
Sawwys
- Ralph Fiennes
- Colman Domingo
- Timothee Chalamet (as Paul Atreides)
- Hugh Grant
- James McAvoy
My Five
- Ralph Fiennes
- Colman Domingo
- *Sebastian Stan
- Hugh Grant
- James McAvoy
