With under two months until Oscar nominations are announced, the race for Best Director is tightening. Who can you expect to see get a coveted Oscar nomination, and who will we here at SAW select for our own awards?
Sean Baker (Anora) vs Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Two nominations look pretty obvious for the Oscars race—I think it’s down to the directors of the two movies I see jockeying for Best Picture: Sean Baker, director of Anora; and Brady Corbet, director of The Brutalist.
Baker may have the advantage in the narrative category. His previous films, particularly The Florida Project, have received great acclaim and Oscar voters could see Anora as their shot to honor him not just for this film, but his entire filmography. Corbet, on the other hand, has previously directed Vox Lux, which is a more divisive film, and a lesser-known film called The Childhood of a Leader.
Baker also has a great throughline in his work of featuring people on the fringe of society, and Anora continues that theme. In lesser hands, this could have been a kitschy movie but Baker is able to pierce through to the heart of the characters and mine richer material despite a good chunk of the film operating on a nearly slapstick level. Critics and audiences alike have been praising the film, which won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival to start its run of success.
The praise for The Brutalist can’t be denied though, with universal acclaim so far. The marketing for the film, in a cheeky move from producer A24, quotes all of the big movie reviewers with the one word featured in all of their glowing reviews: “Monumental.” It has been called a great American epic on the level of The Godfather. It is 3 hours and 35 minutes (not including a 20-minute intermission). In many ways, it screams “Best Picture.” Will Corbet come along with it? Will Oscar voters split the Director and Picture votes? And which movie will win which award?
I’m banking on The Brutalist to win Best Picture, and I think the Oscars will honor Sean Baker with Best Director for Anora, but that’s a razor-thin prediction based on gut feeling. As for Sawwys, I don’t expect The Brutalist to qualify this year and will instead compete with the 2025 field of movies.
Outside of those two clear nominees, it gets murkier.
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Jacques Audiard has long been held up as a nominee for Emilia Perez, and maybe that movie will still hit for Academy voters and bring Audiard in here. Having watched the movie since it dropped on Netflix, I can tell ya I don’t think it is going to get the same love at the annual SAWards.
Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Denis Villeneuve deserves to be in this race. I honestly don’t really know why we he is on the bubble according to Oscar pundits, but here we are. One of the most visually and technically impressive movies in some time, turning an “unfilmable” story into a smash box office and critical hit is apparently all for nought—maybe. I’m hoping the pundits are underestimating the Academy voters and Villeneuve slides comfortably in the top five. Regardless, you can go ahead now and bet you will see him nominated for a Sawwy (and he just might win).
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Coralie Fargeat, director of The Substance, has an outside shot to make the Oscars five, the only chance for a female director to make the cut this year. It’s frustrating as a fan to see one of the clearly best-directed films of the year on the outside looking in largely because of its genre trappings, but it is what it is. She’s definitely in for a Sawwy, with The Substance being one of the buzziest films among us here with nominations sure to come all up and down the ballot.
Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys)
Ramell Ross has been praised for his use of POV in Nickel Boys, with pretty universal agreement that it is one of the most solid artistic endeavors in directing this year. I have not seen it myself to comment, although I am excited to give it a watch.
Robert Eggers (Nosferatu)
It seems to me that Robert Eggers probably has no shot at a slot from The Academy, but I also expect he just might be a lock for a nomination from we writers at ScreenAge Wasteland. Eggers is a favorite of many here, and his last film The Northman was nominated for Best Picture despite not having a sniff at a nomination from The Academy. We are also less adverse to horror films here, so Nosferatu, no problem.
Jon M. Chu (Wicked)
Wicked is currently soaring at the box office and has also gotten rave reviews from critics and audiences; I am feeling it is almost a guaranteed Best Picture nominee at this point, if not a contender for the top prize. Where does that leave director Jon M. Chu? It’s hard to tell whether Chu can ascend into the top five with Academy voters, especially given the blockbuster nature of Wicked. But I really think Chu deserves some flowers for what he did here: I watched Wicked a second time and was simply transfixed by how kinetic the movie is despite being 2 hours and 40 minutes on just Act I of the Broadway show. Very few musicals have been able to so effortlessly flow back and forth between drama and music. So often movie musicals feel like the drama is only there to set up the next musical number, or the music feels like a needless interruption to the perfectly fine dramatic story. There are some color and lighting issues here and there in this movie, but so many of Chu’s decisions do so much for this film that I would be pleased to see him honored with a nomination, whether from the Oscars or from us.
Edward Berger (Conclave)
Edward Berger is probably going to get one of these top five spots with The Academy. Conclave has had staying power in the Best Picture race for a while now and the movie is very well directed. The Vatican makes for a gorgeous backdrop, which only helps to boost its odds. Here at SAW, I am unsure of its chances, primarily because I feel four films are very likely to get nominations, leaving this and several others fighting for that final spot.
*Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Jonathan Glazer will not be nominated for an Oscar this year, as he has already gotten that honor during last year’s awards ceremony. At Screenage Wasteland, however, we did not have the opportunity to consider his work with Zone of Interest (due to its lack of availability during the nomination window), so it will be eligible for this year’s SAWards. Glazer is clearly operating on a higher level than many other working directors and while I don’t expect Zone of Interest to make it into our Best Picture race (despite it getting a BP Oscar nom last year), Glazer should not be overlooked here.
Luca Guadagnino (Challengers)
Luca Guadagnino doesn’t have any shot in the Oscar race but could grab a nomination in our SAWards competition. I haven’t seen Challengers yet, but it is well-liked by many of our contributors and there are obviously some interesting directing choices from Guadagnino that have been talked about—no more than that wild tennis ball POV shot. It’s also entirely possible there’s more love for the movie itself than the direction from Guadagnino and he fails to secure a spot in the final five.
Current predictions
Oscars
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Brady Corbet — The Brutalist
- Edward Berger — Conclave
- Denis Villeneuve — Dune: Part Two
- Ramell Ross — Nickel Boys
Sawwys
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Denis Villeneuve — Dune: Part Two
- Coralie Fargeat — The Substance
- Robert Eggers — Nosferatu
- Jon M. Chu — Wicked
