Awards season is truly upon us with a huge week of critics making their picks for wins and nominations across the country.
There’s a lot to take away from this first week, with part two right around the corner starting with the Golden Globes nominations today (spoiler: the Globes just changed everything, more on that later this week). Just how much stock to put into the results so far varies greatly, however, depending on the awards body and what they’ve done.
The only true harbinger, in my opinion, is the Critics’ Choice Awards nominations, which ended up telling us—not much, really.
Here’s the nominees for Best Film from the CCA:
- Bugonia (Focus Features)
- Frankenstein (Netflix)
- Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Jay Kelly (Netflix)
- Marty Supreme (A24)
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
- Sentimental Value (Neon)
- Sinners (Warner Bros.)
- Train Dreams (Netflix)
- Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
So what do we take away from that group? First of all, it has six of what I’m calling the “Safe Seven,” which are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hament, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Frankenstein and It Was Just an Accident. But the CCA has a reputation for undervaluing international films, so I wouldn’t sweat that too much.
That means there are four other films here that may be vying for three Oscars slots. Those films are Jay Kelly, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good and Bugonia.
The big takeaway here is that Avatar: Fire and Ash didn’t make the cut. Technically, CCA voters could turn in their ballots before they had the chance to screen Avatar, but there’s also a sensibility that many waited for the screening. Man even suspected it would have an advantage as the freshest film on voters’ minds.
Not only did Avatar miss best film, it only got one nomination in VFX. That’s a really bad sign for the film’s Oscar odds and it will need to show up big at Golden Globes to have any shot at the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars.
Of the four best films that did get in, it feels like Train Dreams is starting to gain the most momentum. That’s bolstered at the CCA by a nomination for Joel Edgerton in Best Actor, and for the film in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography and Best Song. Plus it picked up a Best Cinematography win from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and Best Film nominations at the American Film Institute and National Board of Review. It also nabbed Best Adapted Screenplay from NBR.
While on the topic of NBR and AFI, I want to say that those shouldn’t be taken all too seriously. AFI is for American films, which explains the absence of Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident from its list. It should be noted that AFI gave its special notice to Sentimental Value, signifying it as the group’s top international film. NBR is just kind of silly to put much stock into with F1, Rental Family and Wake Up Dead Man all making the top ten with no real shot at the Oscars lineup.
Next up, let’s look at Wicked: For Good. Despite sinking critic reviews, the blockbuster sequel is still doing alright on its Best Picture tracking, getting in on the AFI, NBR and CCA lists. It really hasn’t missed anywhere yet. The biggest sign of trouble is at the CCAs, particularly with Cynthia Erivo missing Best Actress in a. field of six. Ouch. Still, the film picked up seven nominations including Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande. I think the film remains strong enough in the tech categories to bolster its Oscar odds, and I am not counting Erivo for an Oscar nom just yet.
Next up is Jay Kelly, which is having a decent week. It, too, got into Best Picture at AFI, NBR and CCA. And like Wicked, it has an acting nom at CCA to pair with the Best Picture nomination, with Adam Sandler in supporting actor. It only took home four CCA noms, but that includes Original Screenplay, which could suggest a stronger package for the Oscars.
And then we have Bugonia. It comes in just slightly weaker than the two before it, with only three CCA noms; however, those include Best Actress for Emma Stone and Best Adapted Screenplay, which is another good package, It did miss out on NBR, but made the AFI list.
All three of those final options saw one half of an expected acting duo get in while the other was snubbed: Grande got in while Erivo missed out, Sandler got in while George Clooney is in the cold, and Stone is recognized while co-lead Jesse Plemons is on the outside looking in.
I think these last three films are battling for the last two slots, with the addition of two other international films that have gotten love elsewhere: No Other Choice and The Secret Agent.
No Other Choice showed up in international feature and best Adapted Screenplay at CCA, with that screenplay nomination being a great sign for the film. But it has struggled to make a big splash so far this season, but it also isn’t releasing fully until the new year.
That’s all for now. What are your “Safe Seven” for Oscars Best Picture?
