After months of speculation, it’s finally time for the big day. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is set to unveil its nominees on Thursday, January 22, for the 98th Academy Awards, so it’s time to get my final predictions in and on the record.
Lest you look back at my previous best guesses and think me a fool, rankings are listed generally in the order of surety, and the top spots (bolded) are my preliminary winner picks.
Best Picture
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Frankenstein
- Sentimental Value
- Bugonia
- Train Dreams
- It Was Just an Accident
- The Secret Agent
This category feels like a shoo-in at this point, but there is still room for some surprises. It’s easy to see Weapons or F1 slipping into this lineup in exchange for one of those last two international films, which are practically tied IMO for likelihood. Maybe there are bigger surprises on the board like a Blue Moon, but that would be quite a shocker. I am fully expecting to go 10/10 here.
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
- Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
- Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
- Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Picking a winner here is easy. Picking the top five is incredibly tough. Guillermo Del Toro has a real shot of making this cut, as does Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident. I hope to go 4/5 minimum.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (OBAA)
- Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
- Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
One of my better moments of this season is going on record in early December, before Marty Supreme hit mass audiences. to declare Timothée Chalamet the winner of this award. While the Academy could certainly pull a surprise on Oscars night, all signs are currently trending his way. My big swing here is obviously Jesse Plemons making the cut, particularly over Wagner Moura. I am choosing to reject the idea that Moura simply follows the Fernanda Torres arc, although he is easily the other coin flip contender for that final spot. I also believe Bugonia is stronger than people had realized earlier this season. I anticipate going no worse than 4/5 here.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
- Emma Stone (Bugonia)
- Renata Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
- Chase Infiniti (OBAA)
Once again, I’m not exactly a Nostradamus—most pundits have been calling a Buckley sweep since Hamnet debuted at the Telluride Film Festival, but it still feels good to be right. That fifth spot is really the only question mark, with Kate Hudson posing a significant threat with Song Sung Blue. I think the strength of One Battle After Another lifts Infiniti here though. I expect to go 4/5 or better.
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio del Toro (OBAA)
- Stellan Skarsgärd (Sentimental Value)
- Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
- Sean Penn (OBAA)
- Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
This category feels like it has been dead-set forever. There was some question about whether Adam Sandler could pose a threat to crack the top five for his role in Jay Kelly, but that has faded. In the interest of doing something wild, I am tentatively predicting a del Toro win as the smart money turns toward Skarsgärd. Maybe the voters will sort things out to honor their favorite movie here. I’d be stunned if I am not 5/5 on these.
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Madigan (Weapons)
- Teyana Taylor (OBAA)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas (Sentimental Value)
- Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
- Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme)
This is by far the toughest category to predict. Honestly, going 4/5 would be a win here. It’s hard to believe Ariana Grande is on the verge of falling out of this grouping. Elle Fanning also poses a threat to double up actresses from Sentimental Value here. Even Gwyneth Paltrow could show up, though that’s less likely.
Best Original Screenplay
- Sinners
- Sentimental Value
- It Was Just An Accident
- Marty Supreme
- Weapons
My only worry here is Weapons, which is obviously an awesome decision if the Academy goes that way. Sorry, Baby could be a threat here with a shout-out from Julia Roberts at the Golden Globes. You could also argue for The Secret Agent here, especially if it’s getting the BP nom. I feel comfortable expecting to go 4/5 here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- One Battle After Another
- Hamnet
- Bugonia
- Train Dreams
- Frankenstein
Sometimes you just go with the chalk. These are the five adapted screenplays that match Best Picture. These five films have the most enthusiasm behind them. I don’t believe No Other Choice has much going for it outside of international feature. I am expecting to go 5/5 here.
Best Animated Feature
- K-Pop Demon Hunters
- Zootopia 2
- Little Amelíe or the Character of Rain
- Arco
- Elio
God, can we just move on to next year’s race already? 5/5
Best Song
- “Golden”—K-Pop Demon Hunters
- “I Lied to You”—Sinners
- “Train Dreams”–Train Dreams
- “The Girl in the Bubble”—Wicked: For Good
- “Dear Me”—Relentless
If you don’t recognize the last song, it’s the latest Diane Warren song, from the documentary on Diane Warren. Because of course it is. This should be a two-horse race, but the only thing worse than beating a dead horse is betting on one. 5/5
Best Score
- Ludwig Görannson—Sinners
- Johnny Greenwood—One Battle After Another
- Daniel Lopatin—Marty Supreme
- Max Richter—Hamnet
- Kangding Ray—Sirât
There was some speculation Johnny Greenwood could get his first Oscar here, but Görannson is just a modern master who is proving to be an unstoppable force. He will probably win again next year for The Odyssey. I’m hoping that the fifth spot goes to something like Sirât, which would be a cool pick, but I may be wrong. I’ll be happy going 4/5.
Here are the rest of my predictions without further comment.
Best Cinematography
- Train Dreams
- Sinners
- One Battle After Another
- Hamnet
- Frankenstein
Best Hair and Makeup
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- The Smashing Machine
- Sinners
- Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- Hamnet
- Sinners
- Marty Supreme
Best Costume Design
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- Hamnet
- Sinners
- Marty Supreme
