We just wrapped up a thrilling Oscars season last week with Anora claiming the most coveted prize out of a chaotic and crowded race, with a handful of upsets in other categories including Flow for Best Animated Feature and Mikey Madison for Best Lead Actress. But there’s no rest for Poll Position, because when one race ends, another is just beginning. I mean, technically, we’re a quarter-way through the race already (although we all know most of the heavy hitters won’t show up until further down the line).
Last year, I picked a paltry three nominees correctly: Nickel Boys, Conclave, and Dune: Part Two. Look, trying to predict nominees a year in advance is a tall order, but I’ve redoubled my efforts and taken this much more seriously this go-around and I’m adamant to improve my predictions and get at least 4/10 right if not hit 50 percent accuracy.
That’s easier said than done, and this year the trouble for me seems to be a wealth of potential nominees, compared to what I felt was a dearth of options early on last season. Without further ado, here are some movies to be aware of for this year’s Oscar race, followed by my way-too-early predictions.
Blockbuster Follow-ups
Wicked: For Good
The second half of the Wicked story poses some of the most interesting questions of the upcoming Oscars season. Will the Academy be willing to nominate Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande two consecutive years for playing the same characters? Will it face the same struggles as Dune: Part Two with replicating nominations? I feel, for whatever reason, that a movie about the takedown of a fascist charlatan may resonate with Academy voters by the end of 2025. Wicked tied The Brutalist with 10 nominations at the 2025 ceremony, and the sequel will have room to notch a few extras with two original songs in this part. This could very well claim the most nominations of any 2025 movie.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Both installments of James Cameron’s Avatar franchise have been nominated for Best Picture, and there’s not much reason to doubt the third will be any different. These movies will always be spectacles to see, and it sounds like we could finally be getting a more complex screenplay to match the visual splendor. The Way of Water left some interesting complex relationships to watch play out, so this has the potential to be the best of the series. These films will always clean up in the technical nominations even if they are lacking in above-the-line recognition (outside of Best Picture).
F1
Joseph Kosinski is back with another blockbuster thrill ride, just sub out Tom Cruise for Brad Pitt and fighter jets for formula cars. Kosinski shocked us all by piloting Top Gun: Maverick to a Best Picture nomination, but I have my doubts that F1 can replicate that magic. I’m hoping this throttles us just like Top Gun did, but it will really have to put the pedal to the metal if it wants to get in this race.
Frankenstein v. The Bride!
Frankenstein
This is the biggest challenger I see to rival Wicked: For Good for most nominations. Guillermo del Toro already has a Best Picture (plus a Best Animated Feature) under his belt, and now he’s bringing a classic tale to the screen with a stacked cast. He’s also on a streak with Nightmare Alley also making the Best Picture cut and Pinocchio winning Best Animated Feature. Mia Goth could finally have a shot at Oscar glory as supporting actress, Jacob Elordi stars as Frankenstein’s monster and Oscar Isaac could bring the heat as Dr. Frankenstein himself. In addition to the potential for Best Picture, Best Director and up to three actor nominations, the film is ripe for below-the-line categories from VFX to production design, to costumes, hair and makeup, cinematography—there’s no end to the categories this could show up in.
The Bride!
If I had a nickel for every Frankenstein-inspired movie of the 2020s, I’d have four nickels—four! And two of those are debuting in 2025 as Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride! joins GDT’s Frankenstein on the slate. It turns out, Netflix actually jilted The Bride! in favor of Frankenstein after the Hollywood strikes. Ouch! We’ll see if there’s room for two remakes of the pair of classic monster films. It’s a stacked cast as well, with Christian Bale as this version of Frankenstein’s monster, Jessie Buckley as The Bride and Jake Gyllenhaal in an as-of-yet unidentified role (although I’m betting he will be Dr. Euphronius, the creator of The Bride). Also, Penelope Cruz and Annette Benning because why not?
Safdie v. Safdie
The Smashing Machine
Having made their names as a directing duo on projects like Good Time, Uncut Gems and The Curse, Benny and Josh Safdie announced that they would be temporarily splitting up to focus on separate projects. For Benny Sadie, that project turned out to be The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson as former MMA/UFC champion Mark Kerr based on the HBO documentary of the same name. Emily Blunt will re-team with Johnson as Kerr’s wife Dawn Staples. Blunt and Rock have already shown their chemistry in Disney’s Jungle Cruise. Johnson looks near-unrecognizable in the role, and I could see him getting attention in Best Actor, but this film—and maybe his performance—could just as easily go the way of The Iron Claw.
Marty Supreme
Josh Safdie also chose to direct a sports movie after splitting from his brother, although it’s very different from Benny’s true-life tale of the MMA champ. Marty Supreme is said to be a heavily fictionalized globe-trotting adventure inspired by real-life professional table tennis player Marty Reisman. Timothee Chalamet is set to play the titular role, and A24 has reportedly dumped $70 million into the production, making the film its most expensive project to date by far. The previous record-holder Civil War did not make Oscars noise this year, while the much less expensive The Brutalist took home three statuettes last week. So we’ll see whether A24 pushes Marty Supreme or The Smashing Machine harder. Or if another project from the premier indie distributor picks up steam instead.
The Music Biopics
Michael
Jaafar Jackson steps into the moonwalking shoes of his uncle Michael for this estate-approved biopic of the turbulent life of Michael Jackson. This is a really tough one to predict, with the recent news that the entire third act has to be reshot after the Jackson estate discovered an agreement with a former child accuser not to use their story in any media. Apparently, the third act tries to argue Michael Jackson’s innocence regarding the accusations against him. It’s unclear how this movie will turn out or if The Academy will want to court controversy with this, but it’s also a genre The Academy clearly loves about maybe the biggest musical star of all time. It could also be pushed back due to the reshoots and not even be in this discussion.
Deliver Me From Nowhere
Jeremy Allen White of The Bear fame assumes the role of Bruce Springsteen for this production, which will likely be less controversial and perhaps more intimate than the Michael Jackson biopic. It seems like the less likely Best Picture nominee in scope and production, but if Michael falls flat or proves too controversial, I could definitely see this making the cut. Or who knows? Maybe there’s room for two music biopics this year.
Neon Dreams
The Life of Chuck
There currently exists a 12-year streak of the Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice winner being nominated for Best Picture. Not only that, many of the first and second runners-up have also landed Best Picture nominations as well. The Life of Chuck could make or break that streak, while the first and second runners-up, Emilia Perez and Anora notched nominations for last week’s Oscars ceremony.
I didn’t dig through to research whether any other movie in the past 12-year streak had delayed eligibility like Life of Chuck, but my gut says probably not. And we will have a brand new winner this year to contend with, plus any runners-up that might claim spots as well. Further, while some people adored this Stephen King adaptation at its festival debut, its current Metacritic score of 64 certainly has me nervous about its chances to be nominated. But there are only two Neon movies currently on the slate that I could see contending, and Neon has been great at campaigning over the past few years so it’s hard to ignore this movie. I think the reality is some currently unknown movie will be picked up by Neon later this year and will become their true Oscars pony.
Sentimental Value
Neon does have one more horse in the stable that could compete. Although the lineup for the upcoming Cannes Film Festival has not yet been announced, there’s a good chance it will pick up Sentimental Value by director Joachim Trier. But this feels a lot like the hype for Trier’s last outing with The Worst Person in the World, which some people loved but didn’t get any Oscars nods outside of Best International Film. It’s described simply as a comedy-drama that follows Nora and her sister Agnes as they mourn the loss of their mother and adjust to the return of their father Gustav. There’s not enough there for me to go on to expect this to turn the corner for a BP nom.
More notable projects
Highest 2 Lowest
Spike Lee reimagining a work from Akira Kurosawa? Sign me right up. I have to admit though, I have never seen High and Low, so I don’t have the greatest grasp on how the story translates for a Best Picture nomination, plus there’s the question of how Spike Lee is going to adapt it. But it’s got Denzel Washington and Jeffrey Wright primed for great performances. We will have to see if this tracks more like BlackKklansman or Da 5 Bloods. And hold the phone! I just realized this is actually being distributed by a deadly combo of A24 AND Apple—this could be the A24 darling over the Safdie movies this year. And that Apple money could sure help as well.
Bugonia
Yorgos Lanthimos plus Emma Stone plus Jesse Plemmons? That trio hasn’t missed a Best Picture nomination since… oh, just this year with Kinds of Kindness. All kidding aside, this is the story of two conspiracy-addled men who kidnap the CEO of a company because they believe she is an alien. That sounds incredible—and pretty weird. Which, so was Poor Things, but this may fall into the category of Lanthimos movies The Academy largely ignores. It could definitely lead to some nominations, but maybe not in Best Picture.
One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson has a good track record of making Best Picture nominees, so it’s hard to bet against this one. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Regina Hall, Benicio Del Toro, Alana Haim and Sean Penn among others. This is an adaptation of the novel Vineland, which is set in the Reagan era with flashbacks to the 60s and articulates the social transformations of that period. Anderson is apparently setting this adaptation in modern times, however, and it remains to be seen how exactly that plays. But until further notice, this has to be a top contender.
Hamnet
Chloe Zhao is back after her baffling foray into the MCU with Hamnet, an adaptation of the novel of the same name. Hamnet tells the story of William and Agnes Shakespeare and the loss of their 11-year-old son Hamnet to the bubonic plague. This sounds pretty Oscar-baity with Paul Mescal taking on the role of the iconic William Shakespeare and Jessie Buckley as Agnes, the lead of the movie. It will explore grief and love and how Hamnet’s death fueled Shakespeare’s writing of Hamlet. I could also see this falling flat for Best Picture and being more of an Oscar play in adapted screenplay and for the performances, but time will tell.
After the Hunt
I had no clue about this movie until researching for this post and it is now my number one most anticipated movie of 2025. People are raving about this original script, which features college professor Alma (Julia Roberts) about to release a groundbreaking dissertation when a star pupil (Ayo Edebiri) comes to her with an accusation: she has been raped by a fellow professor (Andrew Garfield). But that professor, Henrik, approaches Alma with a different version of events: the pupil had plagiarized an essay. Things escalate from there on out and it sounds riveting. Luca Guadagnino is signed on to direct. Could Luca Guadagnino repeat as a SAW favorite with a great original script? This screams gold to me based on the script reactions and Guadagnino’s more-than-competent directorial hand. And that cast!
The Wizard of the Kremlin
This movie about the rise of Vladimir Putin is just getting more relevant by the day. Although it’s based on Putin’s rise, the film’s protagonist is actually a young Russian filmmaker (Paul Dano) who becomes an unlikely advisor to Putin (Jude Law). Look, if you’ve watched an ounce of news lately, you know that this is likely to have all the political relevance in the world. It also gives Paul Dano a chance to maybe grasp for an Oscar win that has been just out of reach. The film would pair nicely with Wicked: For Good. One movie is about a fictional despotic leader and one is about a very real one—both relying on propaganda to become mythological figures. I’m keeping a close eye on who snatches up the rights for U.S. distribution. Dare I say this could be a Neon play?
Wild Horse Nine
The biggest risk in picking this new film from writer-director Martin McDonagh is that it might not come out this year. We don’t know much about the plot of this one, except that McDonagh has set this film on a non-Irish island this time—Easter Island. Mark Ruffalo, John Malkovich, Parker Posey and frequent McDonagh collaborator Sam Rockwell have all joined the case and production begins this month. If the film releases late in the fall, it’s hard to bet against McDonagh in any Oscars race.
My 2026 Predictions
Best Picture
- Wicked: For Good (Universal)
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios/Disney)
- Frankenstein (Netflix)
- After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
- Highest 2 Lowest (A24/Apple)
- Hamnet (Focus Features)
- The Wizard of the Kremlin (???)
- Rental Family (Searchlight)
- Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios/Disney)
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
- Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
- Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
- Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt)
- Spike Lee (Highest 2 Lowest)
Best Actor
- Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
- Paul Dano (The Wizard of the Kremlin)
- Brendan Fraser (Rental Family)
- Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me from Nowhere)
- Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
Best Actress
- Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- Emma Mackey (Ella McCay)
- Anne Hathaway (Mother Mary)
Best Supporting Actor
- Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)
- Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
- Jude Law (The Wizard of the Kremlin)
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
- Jeffery Wright (Highest 2 Lowest)
Best Supporting Actress
- Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)
- Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
- Mia Goth (Frankenstein)
- Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)
- Michaela Coel (Mother Mary)
Best Original Screenplay
- After the Hunt
- Jay Kelly
- Wild Horse Nine
- Sorry, Baby
- Rental Family
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Frankenstein
- The Battle of Baktan Cross
- Hamnet
- The Wizard of the Kremlin
- The Bride!
Best Animated Feature
- Wildwood (Laika)
- Elio (Pixar)
- Zootopia 2 (Disney)
- The Day the Earth Blew Up (Warner Bros)
- Lost in Starlight (Netflix)
Best Cinematography
- Frankenstein
- F1
- Highest 2 Lowest
- Mother Mary
- One Battle After Another
Best Production Design
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
Best Editing
- F1
- Wicked: For Good
- After the Hunt
- One Battle After Another
- Frankenstein
Best Costumes
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- Mother Mary
- Hamnet
- The Bride!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- The Bride!
- Michael
- The Smashing Machine
Best Visual Effects
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Wicked: For Good
- F1
- Superman
- Fantastic Four
Best Sound
- F1
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Wicked: For Good
- Deliver Me from Nowhere
- One Battle After Another
Best Score
- Frankenstein (Desplat)
- After the Hunt (Atticus and Ross)
- Wicked: For Good (Schwartz)
- One Battle After Another (Greenwood)
- The Ballad of a Small Player (Bertelmann)
Best Original Song
- Wicked: For Good (Elphaba song)
- Wicked: For Good (Glinda song)
- Kendrick Lamar/SZA (Whitney Springs)
- Diane Warren (Relentless)
- Unknown song (Mother Mary)
