It’s been a fun awards season everyone, and now that nominations are all in, I wanted to take a look back at how I did in predictions over the last 12 months.
I’ve come a long way in predicting the Best Picture race, only correctly guessing 3/10 nominees way back in May 2024. Of course, who could have expected then that Wicked, The Substance, and I’m Still Here would be anywhere near this race?
As of May, very few of these Oscar contenders had actually been seen by critics, much less the general public, so it was a time of taking shots in the dark.
Here are the three I got right:
- Dune: Part Two
- Nickel Boys
- Conclave
And here are the seven I flubbed on:
- Sing Sing- Of course, this was still right on the bubble all the way up to nomination day, so I’m not beating myself up too badly about this one. It was also a major fall from frontrunner to missing the cut, and a bungled campaign from A24.
- Blitz– Sight unseen, this had everything going for it: directed by Steve McQueen, starring Saoirse Ronan, about World War II, with the campaigning power of Apple. Who knew it would fall off the way it did?
- Partenhope- This was an epic miss, both on my part and on A24’s part. I made these predictions before the Cannes Film Festival, and when I saw A24 bought the right to American distribution, I assumed the studio was angling for the Palme d’Or winner and a BP nom (and I still think they were). But the film flopped hard and this fell out of contention immediately.
- Megalopolis- We pretty much already knew this was a mess at the time, but I had a hunch that it could still slip in with the Academy despite that just because it’s artsy and out there. Emilia Perez took it’s place in that regard.
- A Real Pain- This did get Oscar noms for screenplay and a likely win for Kieran Culkin as supporting actor. Probably right on the bubble for Best Picture, so no hard feelings predicting it this early!
- The End- This sounded like a wildly unique film and it was releasing late in the year under Neon’s banner, which has a strong track record with these types of movies. But as I noted out of Cannes, Anora ended up being Neon’s horse in the race.
- Emmanuelle- Probably my biggest whiff of the list. I am not even sure what this movie is? Did it ever come out? I was gasping for straws and a few pundits predicted this so I just threw it on the list.
These way-too-early lists are always way off, which is fun because no one really judges you for missing so epically.
What’s more embarrassing (maybe more for the Academy than for me?) is my huge whiff when I confidently stated that Dune: Part Two WILL win the most Oscars. Thanks a lot, Academy! I made the assumption that Dune would probably pick up nominations again in the same 10 or so categories the original got in 2023, but The Academy snubbed it all over the place. What the hell, Academy? I didn’t love the film as a whole, but its craft is undeniable—apparently, not for Academy voters? Now my best guess is The Brutalist will win the most nominations.
Just one week after my initial predictions, I discounted three of my incorrect picks, Megalopolis, Partenhope, and The End, after reading about their debuts at Cannes. I didn’t make new predictions then, but I correctly identified Anora as the new Oscar contender from Neon.
In September, my hunch that A24 was gunning for a second Best Picture contender was proven right when the studio acquired both Queer and The Brutalist. Armed with the reactions to numerous debuts at major festivals, I updated my predictions list and improved to 60 percent accuracy.
I still included Conclave, Nickel Boys, and Dune: Part Two on my list, and added eventual nominees Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez. My four wrong picks included Sing Sing and Blitz again, and I added Gladiator II and Juror No. 2 as incorrect guesses.
By November, I was pretty tuned in, guessing 8/10 nominees correctly. Wicked and Gladiator II had just made their debut, and I correctly picked Wicked as the movie that would break into the race. I also finally had the confidence to pick SAW favorite The Substance as a nominee for the first time as it picked up steam.
I still had Sing Sing predicted incorrectly, and subbed out A Real Pain for September 5, both movies that seem to have been right on the bubble on nomination morning.
Finally, the week before the Oscars nominations, I locked in my final nomination predictions and once again was 80 percent correct, but for the first time dropped a correct nominee (Nickel Boys), subbing it out for eventual nominee A Complete Unknown.
Those final predictions were pretty good for me across the board, getting 4/5 or 5/5 nominees correct in every category except Best Supporting Actress.
It’s been a great first year of Poll Position, all in all, and I’ve still got a few left up my sleeve as we await the big ceremony. And pretty soon we’ll be looking ahead to a new season of Poll Position, so stick with me! I’m hoping to maybe add some new wrinkles to the series for the new season.
