Alright, folks, we are just a few days out before the 98th Annual Academy Awards, so it is beyond time for me to formally announce my winner picks.
Best Picture
One Battle After Another
It will be well-earned whether One Battle After Another or Sinners ultimately takes home this trophy, but it’s hard to bet against a historic haul of precursors for PTA’s new masterpiece. It’s impressive that Sinners is even posing a challenge considering One Battle’s historic sweep.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson
This may be PTA’s only shot at an Oscar, even if it’s not for his best movie. It is still a terrific directing feat, and Ryan Coogler will have plenty of time to win one of these down the line. I think this one is in the bag, and PTA will be a very deserving winner.
Best Original Screenplay
Sinners
Duh.
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Duh.
Best Actor
Timotheé Chalamet
Things are starting to get tricky here. Chalamet gives my favorite film performance of the year as Marty Mauser, but he hasn’t exactly lit up the precursor circuit. He lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo, who isn’t in this group of five so it’s hard to take too much away from that. But he lost the SAG to Michael B. Jordan, a truly concerning twist that is certainly worth consideration. But SAG gave Timmy an award last year and it’s possible the body just didn’t want to hand him the trophy consecutively. His campaign certainly isn’t helping, and Jordan is positioned very well to pull off the upset come Oscar night.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley
Duh.
It’s been sown up all season, and for good reason. Buckley is incredible in Hamnet. I still haven’t checked out If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, so I could change my mind and think Rose Byrne is the better actress here. But the other options in the category would not sway me.
Best Supporting Actor
Sean Penn
It’s weird that I’m not really rooting for Sean Penn to win this award despite agreeing that he probably deserves to. It’s just less fun giving an award to an actor who has won two prizes already and doesn’t seem the best off the field. I’d rather Benicio del Toro win at this point, but I can’t argue with Penn’s performance at face value. Winning the SAG and BAFTA is a deadly combo, and it’s hard to see where The Academy would swerve here.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan
Boy, what a race. Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan, and Wunmi Mosaku all have big wins, so how do you parse that out? Well, Mosaku and Madigan have the most recency bias and both won during the open voting window, which could give them an edge on Taylor. Between those two, Mosaku probably got a boost at the BAFTAs thanks to her status as a Brit, so I’m factoring that in here. Plus Mosaku and Taylor are both supporting characters that take more of a backseat in their movies compared to Madigan, who is front and center once she arrives on screen and is by far the most interesting performance in Weapons. It feels like the success of Taylor and Mosaku is more dependent on being in the two frontrunners for Best Picture than just their performances (which are both stellar).
Best Editing
One Battle After Another
This has begun coinciding often with the Best Picture winner, so it makes sense for me to pick One Battle here. Maybe Sinners could get the nod instead? Or the Academy could pivot and go with something further afield like F1, which would be a solid choice considering the approach of that film. But I’m betting on the two frontrunners to suck a lot of the air out of the room.
Casting
Sinners
New category, who dis? Both Sinners and One Battle have such great casting, it’s actually a coin flip here. Sinners has an incredible find in Miles Catón and fills out a terrific ensemble with a veteran actor in Delroy Lindo, a superstar with Michael B. Jordan, a lesser-known actress in Wunmi Mosaku—not to mention the casting of Jack O’Connell as the lead vampire.
One Battle likewise finds a future star in Chase Infinit, paired with veterans like Sean Penn and Leonardo DiCaprio, and introducing most people to Teyana Taylor.
International Feature
The Secret Agent
It’s hard to pin down how The Academy feels about Sentimental Value. SAG snubbed it completely, but The Academy gave it four acting nominations. Can The Secret Agent really clear that hurdle? I am basing this entirely on vibes. It feels to me like this is going to happen come Oscar night.
Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
I’m biased here, but I really do think The Alabama Solution could pull this off. The Perfect Neighbor hasn’t exactly cleaned up shop the way people expected, and The Alabama Solution has recently gotten attention on some of the late-night talk shows. If only Ben Stiller had given the film a shoutout before voting closed.
Best Animated Feature
KPop Demon Hunters
It’s gonna be, gonna be golden. Duh.
Cinematography
Sinners
This has some good precursors and I think that one-take we all know and love just might be pushing Sinners over the line in this category.
Production Design
Frankenstein
The production design on Frankenstein is pretty undeniable, even for those who think it wasn’t shot particularly well. And The Academy clearly likes Frankenstein a good deal so it would be strange for it to fall short here.
Costume Design
Frankenstein
Once again, the costumes in this Best Picture-nominated film are outstanding, so it’s hard to see The Academy look elsewhere here.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Oh, look, it’s Frankenstein yet again. This is the Poor Things or Barbie of 2026.
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Ooh, pretty.
Sound
One Battle After Another
I’m probably wrong here; it will likely be F1, but I’m going out on a limb that they want to hand more awards to the Best Picture winner. Plus it has gunshots and stuff. Can it beat vrooms? We shall see.
Score
Sinners
This has not been a battle for a long time. Ludwig Göransson cannot be stopped.
Song
“Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
It’s gonna be, gonna be “Golden.”
Duh.
I’m not predicting the shorts because I am completely unqualified.
And that’s a wrap on predictions. The only thing left now is to actually watch the show and see who wins, which speaking of…
Join me, Raf Stitt, Val Morreale, and Romona Comet LIVE on Sunday beginning at 6 p.m. ET for our Oscars watchalong party! We have a great show lined up, so make sure you’re subscribed to the ScreenAge Wasteland YouTube channel.
