This series is primarily focused on the “premiere” film awards race, the Academy Awards; but we Screenagers know the real arbiter of film merit for any given year is a coveted Sawwy™ from the team and readers right here at ScreenAge Wasteland!
All kidding aside, predicting the SAW nominees has some interesting differences from the Oscar predictions—most notably, that Screenagers don’t necessarily share the exact tastes of the Academy, boosting the chances for out-there movies like Titane or The Substance actually to get recognition. That can also sometimes work to the contrary, with SAW snubbing Oscar-baity films like Maestro, for instance.
Another important distinction is that none of us are professional critics, meaning we aren’t getting any screeners or special access to movies and some of us don’t even live near theaters that will show some of the Oscar nominees—certainly not in time for awards consideration.
I have a pretty full slate of predictions below, and maybe some hopedictions as well (I will be voting, after all). This breakdown is still way too early to tell, but some categories were particularly fun as almost a reminder to our nominating ScreenAge contributors of some of the films and performances they might want to take notice of before making selections.
I’m not picking winners in every category, but where I do, they will be emphasized in bold. Remember, we pick the nominees but you choose the winners, so I’m basing nominations on what movies I think we might select, and what will win based on which of those nominees I foresee you all loving. I am filling out 10 nominees for each category which will be trimmed to five in most categories (except Best Picture, characters, and movie moments) based on the ballots having 10 submissions. But treat my top five in each category as my predicted nominees, and 6-10 as potential upsets.
For the purposes of this prediction, I am assuming The Brutalist, a Best Picture favorite, will be ineligible for our awards as A24 has announced it will be released in select theaters Dec. 20—making it unlikely it will release wide in time for consideration.
Best Picture
- Dune: Part Two
- Challengers
- Anora
- Sing Sing
- Conclave
- The Substance
- Nosferatu
- Gladiator II
- Emilia Perez
- Saturday Night
Thoughts: Dune: Part Two is clearly a masterpiece of sci-fi epic filmmaking, and we at ScreenAge Wasteland tend to be even more accepting of genre films than the Academy. It’s clearly getting a nomination, and I believe you, dear readers, will take it to the finish line. I am feeling some love from our SAW crew for Challengers as well, and I think that will surely notch a nomination. The big question on movies like Sing Sing, Anora, etc. is just a matter of when they drop and will our crew watch them in time? I sense a lot of excitement here for Nosferatu, and hoping The Substance hits for my colleagues like Titane did a few years ago.
Best Director
- Denis Villeneuve—Dune: Part Two
- Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
- Luca Guadagnino—Challengers
- Robert Eggers—Nosferatu
- Sean Baker—Anora
- Jonathan Glazer—Zone of Interest
- Ridley Scott—Gladiator II
- Edward Berger—Conclave
- Jeremy Saulnier—Rebel Ridge
- Rose Glass—Love Lies Bleeding
Thoughts: It’ll be great if SAW continues to honor more female directors than the Academy by nominating Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. It seems to be getting a lot of love from the group. There’s some tough competition though. I think Villeneuve will obviously earn a spot in the nominees and that the voters will give him his flowers. I think we will also want to recognize Luca Guadagnino for his direction of Challengers. The reviews for Anora make me have to list Sean Baker in as a nominee, and I think the excitement here for Nosferatu and appreciation for Eggers as a director makes that a solid prediction to round out the Top 5. However, I fought hard last year to make sure Zone of Interest was classified as a 2024 film for purposes of the SAWards, and I think Jonathan Glazer deserves to make the cut for his haunting portrayal of a Nazi family’s everyday acceptance of evil. Brady Corbet is the real fly in the ointment here as The Brutalist has major Oscar odds but may not hit in time for these awards.
Best Breakout Film Performance
- Clarence Maclin—Sing Sing
- Katy O’Brian—Love Lies Bleeding
- Liza Soberano—Lisa Frankenstein
- Maisy Stella—My Old Ass
- Aaron Pierre—Rebel Ridge
- Nell Tiger Free—The First Omen
- Alisha Weir—Abigail
- Dan Hough—Speak No Evil
- Adam Pearson—A Different Man
- Willa Fitzgerald—Strange Darling
Thoughts: I think Maclin is the obvious choice right now for anyone who has seen Sing Sing. He is in the mix for best supporting actor in his first feature film role, which speaks for itself. But this is a fun category that’s tough to predict. I could see Katy O’Brian getting some love here for her breakout as the bodybuilding love interest of Kristen Stewart in Love Lies Bleeding. I think we ought to also consider Liza Soberano, who held her own as a pure-hearted cheerleader in Lisa Frankenstein. Reviews of My Old Ass lead me to believe Maisy Stella is a strong contender here, and Aaron Pierre has been highly praised for anchoring Jeremy Saulnier’s Rebel Ridge on Netflix. Alisha Weir of Abigail and Dan Hough of Speak No Evil fit the trend of these nominations going to child actors. We’ve seen Adam Pearson before in a couple of things, but never as front and center as in A Different Man.
Best Breakout Film Direction
- Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
- Megan Park—My Old Ass
- Anna Kendrick—Woman of the Hour
- Zelda Williams—Lisa Frankenstein
- Arkasha Stevenson—The First Omen
- Rose Glass—Love Lies Bleeding
- Dev Patel—Monkey Man
- Aaron Schimberg—A Different Man
- Zoe Kravitz—Blink Twice
- Mike Cheslik—Hundreds of Beavers
Thoughts: What an absolutely stacked category. Coralie Fargeat swings wildly with her sophomore film and mostly knocks it out of the park with one of the more stylish picks on this list. I think Megan Park could get recognition here with her sophomore film My Old Ass, a comedic coming-of-age tale with a time travel element that suits a wide range of SAW authors. There were several great debuts already this year: Zelda Williams, daughter of Robin Williams, crafted a probable cult classic with Lisa Frankenstein; actress Zoe Kravitz made a solid psychological thriller with Blink Twice; and actor Dev Patel made his directing debut with a highly entertaining mix of action thriller and Indian mythology. Actress Anna Kendrick’s debut thriller Woman of the Hour, which tells the true-life story of a date between a serial killer and a woman he matched with on The Dating Game, premieres in October on Netflix and has been heavily praised by critics. I haven’t caught The First Omen yet, but Arkasha Stevenson’s feature film debut has high praise as well and honestly, the trailer alone is enough for me to put her on this list.
Best Actor
- Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
- Daniel Craig—Queer
- Timothee Chalamet—Dune/A Complete Unknown
- Joaquin Phoenix—Joker: Folie à Deux
- Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
- James McAvoy—Speak No Evil
- Glen Powell—Hit Man
- Jesse Plemons—Kinds of Kindness
- Sebastian Stan—A Different Man/The Apprentice
- Paul Mescal—Gladiator II
Thoughts: This category could get wild as my top two nominees right now are in movies that could go underseen by our team. One thing I do believe will happen is Chalamet getting a nomination here, and honestly more likely for Dune despite him having better Oscar odds currently for the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown. I also think Joker 2 might be a letdown and miss other awards categories, but Joaquin Phoenix just might be good enough in the role to power to a nomination. Ralph Fiennes is a strong contender assuming we like Conclave, and I could see Sebastian Stan sneaking in for A Different Man. Variety has him at #7 for The Apprentice, but I could see us preferring his other role to his portrayal of Donald Trump. I am including some real curveballs here with Glen Powell for Hit Man and James McAvoy for Speak No Evil. Both actors killed it in these roles; I think McAvoy’s role is deeper, but Powell really crushed the many personalities of his fake hitmen (kinda like McAvoy’s many personalities in Split). Jesse Plemons is apparently great in Kinds of Kindness, but I’m iffy on whether enough SAW writers will watch it to put him in.
Best Supporting Actor
- Austin Butler—Dune: Part Two
- Clarence Maclin—Sing Sing
- Dennis Quaid—The Substance
- Josh O’Connor—Challengers
- Jesse Plemons—Civil War
- Chris Hemsworth—Furiosa
- Nicolas Cage—Longlegs
- Mike Faist—Challengers
- Denzel Washington—Gladiator II
- JK Simmons—Juror No. 2
Thoughts: I am pretty excited to see The Substance get mostly love from our SAW crew so far, with specific support for Dennis Quaid in this race. If our writers see Sing Sing though, Clarence Maclin is going to make a strong argument for this spot. Jesse Plemons stole the show in a single scene in Civil War—will it be enough? Is Josh O’Connor really a supporting actor in Challengers? Then there’s the further off the wall picks like Nic Cage as Longlegs and Chris Hemworth as Dementus in Furiosa. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of those slip in.
Best Actress
- Mikey Madison—Anora
- Zendaya—Challengers
- Demi Moore—The Substance
- Anya Taylor-Joy—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
- Kirsten Dunst—Civil War
- Kristen Stewart—Love Lies Bleeding
- Kathryn Newton—Lisa Frankenstein
- Anna Kendrick—Woman of the Hour
- Maika Monroe—Longlegs
- Karla Sofia Gascon —Emilia Perez
Thoughts: The primetime awards make this feel like a race between Mikey Madison and Karla Sofia Gascon. I know our voters appreciate Sean Baker’s work so Madison feels like a safer bet right now, this will be an interesting race to watch once Emilia Perez actually hits Netflix. I feel more confident that Demi Moore will get a nomination for The Substance and given several authors enjoying Challengers, I am comfortable with Zendaya having a shot. After that I veer wildly from mainstream awards predictions and could be way off. Anya Taylor-Joy is a known name that people may slide in, and she apparently gives a solid performance as a young Furiosa. I don’t know the vibes on Civil War; if enough people liked it I could see Kirsten Dunst maybe slipping into the top five. The rest of the nominations are strong performances in roles that would not typically be considered for awards but we do things a bit differently here and I liked all of the remaining nominees I’ve seen.
Best Supporting Actress
- Toni Colette—Juror No. 2
- Saoirse Ronan—Blitz
- Margaret Qualley—The Substance
- Lady Gaga—Joker: Folie a Deux
- Rebecca Ferguson—Dune: Part Two
- Adria Arjona—Hit Man
- Isabella Rossellini—Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Perez
- Sandra Hueller—Zone of Interest
- OPEN
Thoughts: We finally got a Juror No. 2 trailer and … only got to hear one line from Toni Colette, and barely even got to see her deliver it! Ah well. This category feels wide open to me right now. You can never underestimate Saoirse Ronan, especially in a big wartime movie. Maybe the team will like Margaret Qualley in The Substance enough to nominate her here with limited competition. the Joker reviews make me tend to think Gaga might fall off this list altogether but I don’t have much else to go on yet. I feel like Rebecca Ferguson had a powerful presence in Dune: Part Two, could she shoot to the top? I’m not even finishing feeling this category out right now, it feels too hard to say.
Best Ensemble
- Saturday Night
- Emilia Perez
- Conclave
- Anora
Thoughts: The Academy Awards obviously don’t have a category for ensemble; only the SAG awards do that and it is a de facto Best Picture by a different name. But here at SAW I believe this award stands apart as being for a film with a bigger ensemble cast that may not win individual awards but are great as a whole. With that in mind, Saturday Night is practically built for this award with its insanely overstuffed cast, which all apparently play small parts to perfection. Otherwise, it’s hard to find a lot of options this year that could fit the bill.
Most Overlooked Film
- Strange Darling
- Omni-Loop
- My Old Ass
- Rebel Ridge
- The Bikeriders
- Abigail
- Hundreds of Beavers
- Monkey Man
- Red Rooms
- OPEN
Thoughts: These are in no particular order. I love this category because it’s fun bringing attention to underseen films, but then again, it can be hard to know what to put in here because what might be overlooked for primetime awards might not be so overlooked here. And then as far as a winner goes, the category is “most overlooked” not “best overlooked.” Omni-Loop is one that I feel like most people will miss entirely, but it features a time loop element so me and Duke are seated for it (at home whenever it is available to stream). Speaking of time travel, My Old Ass has been described as a gem since Sundance. I’ve seen lots of recommendations for Strange Darling. I myself will be beating the drum for Hundreds of Beavers. Abigail, Bikeriders and Monkey Man all have strong reviews but felt like a blip on the radar. Comment below and help me round out the list of ten.
Best Animated Film
- The Wild Robot
- Inside Out 2
- Flow
- Wallace and Gromit: A Vengeance Most Fowl
- Transformers One
- Moana 2
- Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim
- Memoir of a Snail
- Kung Fu Panda 4
- Orion and The Dark
Thoughts: Wow, it’s hard to believe a movie as good as Inside Out 2 from Pixar is no longer the frontrunner, but the praise for The Wild Robot is so good, it’s hard to picture anything else winning this award. There’s an outside shot for Flow to play well with our crowd, as a silent film that has rave reviews from Cannes and a beautiful animated style. Memoir of a Snail has audacious reviews but I have no idea when it will be available wide and how many people have heard of it. It’ll duke it out for that fifth spot I think with the surprisingly good Transformers One, the anime Lord of the Rings spin-off War of the Rohirrim, and Disney’s series-turned-movie Moana 2. Threw in Kung Fu Panda 4 and Orion and the Dark to round out the ten because why not?
Best Cinematography
- Dune: Part Two
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Blitz
- Joker: Folie à Deux
- Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
- Conclave
- The First Omen
- I Saw the TV Glow
- Saturday Night
Thoughts: This category really excites me, although Dune will probably easily walk away with the win here. The cinematography in the Nosferatu trailer looks great and this team loves some Robert Eggers movies. Joker 2 could crash and burn as a whole, taking these kind of noms along with it, but the trailer alone shows some serious chops here. My personal favorite sleeper is The First Omen. The shot designs in that film are immaculate, no to be confused with the other big nun horror of the year. Some of the other nominees are just potential heavier hitters overall.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Sing Sing
- Gladiator II
- A Complete Unknown
- Nickel Boys
- The Wild Robot
- Inside Out 2
- OPEN
- OPEN
Thoughts: Not really the strongest category this year. We will see how the SAW team reacts to Conclave, perhaps that could come out on top. Or maybe Sing Sing if that movie makes the rounds. Dune: Part Two could always snatch up another award here as well. The rest of these are on here by default for now.
Best Original Screenplay
- The Substance
- Challengers
- Anora
- Saturday Night
- Rebel Ridge
- Juror No. 2
- I Saw the TV Glow
- Blitz
- Emilia Perez
- OPEN
Thoughts: This category feels a lot stronger this year than adapted screenplay. The Substance is audacious and feels like something we would honor. And I’ve heard the Challengers screenplay shines in particular. Rebel Ridge is not only tightly plotted, but has some great dialogue. Anora seems primed for a nom with its equally wild screenplay and Saturday Night’s ticking clock comic chops are easy pickings. Not much is known about Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 but the plot lends itself to a screenplay nom in my book. I could see I Saw the TV Glow maybe getting a nod just for originality. Emilia Perez seems like another bold script and I’m sure Blitz will be good. Not too confident in the bottom of the list.
Best Score
- Challengers
- The Wild Robot
- Dune: Part Two
- The Substance
- Blitz
- Emilia Perez
- Saturday Night
- Conclave
- Flow
- Queer
Thoughts: I’ve literally only seen (and heard) two of these movies and Challengers is not one of them. However, I HAVE heard a lot of praise for the score, especially with this SAW crew, so in my mind, it is the runaway winner. The rest of these I basically pulled off of Variety’s predictions and slightly tweaked based on my perception of SAW’s movie tastes.
Best Visual Effects
- Dune: Part Two
- Alien: Romulus
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- The Substance
- Hundreds of Beavers
- Gladiator II
Thoughts: It’s a bit boring when the obvious VFX winner comes out in March, but we’ve known for a long time that Dune: Part Two’s effects would go pretty much unmatched. The Substance body horror is ridiculously over the top in spots and so well executed. And Alien: Romulus is a spectacle in itself bringing back that tactile futuristic feel of the original. The Planet of the Apes franchise continues its run of bad luck going up against titans despite having impeccable CGI and motion capture throughout. Hundreds of Beavers is a wild swing in the other direction, but the low-budget VFX in this case only heighten the slapstick sense of humor and actually elevate the film. Plus, this is all the work of one dude at his home computer on Adobe After Effects; taking that into consideration, this film is a miracle. I assume Gladiator II will have cool effects. I stopped at six predictions for now because I don’t know what else to put.
Best Character
- Anora—Anora
- Feyd-Rautha—Dune: Part Two
- Terry Richmond—Rebel Ridge
- Jean Kayak—Hundreds of Beavers
- Longlegs—Longlegs
- Tashi Donaldson—Challengers
- Dementus—Furiosa
- Elisabeth Sparkle—The Substance
- Proximus Caesar—Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Lisa Swallows—Lisa Frankenstein
Thoughts: I’m not sure if it’s an official rule for this category, but looking back at the last two awards years this category has followed my principle that best character nominees are limited to fictional characters AND, preferably, characters who debuted in the awards year (so no Paul Atreides or Furiosa this year, but Feyd-Rautha and Dementus are welcome). Mikey Madison is a strong contender for Best Actress as a character named Anora in a movie named Anora. Speaking of eponymous characters, Longlegs the movie may have disappointed, but Longlegs the character made an impact that will be remembered. That sounds like a strong character to me.
Having not seen Challengers, I am just choosing Tashi as the character to represent that movie here, but it’s possible she is replaced by one of the boys or that they join her in this ranking. I hear Dementus makes quite the impression in Furiosa and obviously Austin Butler’s depiction of Feyd-Rautha has drawn lots of attention here. Elizabeth Sparkle is a terrific character portrayal by Demi Moore and personifies the emptiness and horror unrealistic beauty expectations can have on a person. Terry Richmond is cool as hell as a Black marine taking on dirty cops in Louisiana; some have said he is like a Batman without the suit—pretty cool. But only one character on this list has taken on literally hundreds of beavers: Jean Kayak. Proximus Caesar was a really fun villain in Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and it feels like Lisa Swallows could become a cult icon, but I could easily see these two falling off the list to make way for someone from, say, the Emlia Perez cast.
Best Movie Moment
- Sandworm Ride—Dune 2
- What kind of American Are You?—Civil War
- Final match—Challengers
- Birth of Sue—The Substance
- Final scene—Anora
- Setting the PACE—Rebel Ridge
- Anti-gravity acid blood—Alien: Romulus
- The Greatest Dam Escape in Film History—Hundreds of Beavers
- Furiosa big action chase scene/Deadpool & Wolverine scene
- Riley’s Anxiety Attack—Inside Out 2
Thoughts: Ever since we first saw Timmy Chalamet atop the sandworm in Dune: Part Two, I’ve had very little doubt in my mind that scene would also sit atop our best movie moments of the year. It’s an incredible piece of filmmaking all around and it’s a guaranteed nomination in my opinion. Remember, we can only pick one scene per movie.
I’m honestly not sure what our take is as a team on Civil War, but I think everyone can agree that Jesse Plemons’ appearance in the movie is an arresting scene that resonates regardless of your overall opinion of the film. Assuming a lot of love for Challengers, reviews indicate that the final scene between tennis rivals is the most memorable part. As for The Substance, the question is less whether it will make the list than what scene? In keeping with the body horror insanity of the film, the first use of The Substance® and the birth of “Sue” seems fitting. Here’s hoping the anti-gravity acid blood scene from Alien: Romulus makes this cut. It was an incredibly innovative scene in a movie that sometimes left franchise fans feeling like they were retreading old ground.
Rebel Ridge was another entry that was hard to pick a scene for as the finale is phenomenal as well. But I think the scene regarding the acronym PACE really sets the tone and stands out above the rest. The third act of Hundreds of Beavers is like nothing you’ve ever seen before, and includes our protagonist escaping a beaver dam. Here’s hoping enough Screenagers take notice to cement it on this list. There’s a lot of great buzz bout the final scene in Anora as cementing the film as a masterpiece. It’s sight-unseen but good enough for me. Furiosa might have flubbed at the box office—I haven’t seen it myself—but that chase scene that took 26 days to film is supposed to have a flash of Fury Road, which sounds like it belongs here. Or, alternatively, maybe a scene from Deadpool & Wolverine gets in; I have no idea, haven’t seen it. Finally, Riley’s anxiety attack in Inside Out 2 is so refreshingly different for animation; I’m not talking about what’s happening in the control room, I mean the animation of Riley in the hockey box struggling. It connects on a human level that most animated films can’t reach and could be a good option here pending standout moments from movies yet to be seen.
