Friends, another Oscar season is officially in the history books and after a week to decompress, it’s time for me to look back at the season to see what I got right—and what I got terribly wrong.
My goal at the outset this season was to improve upon last year’s early predictions for Best Picture, where I went 3/10. Unfortunately, I am stuck in that rut for now with another 3/10 in my first formal predictions. That said, I made those predictions a full two months earlier than the prior year. I also followed up right after Cannes with new predictions that ended up being 60 percent accurate. I made a couple of tweaks between May and my next predictions in October, but remained at 6/10. My final predictions a few days before the announcement of nominations ended up at 9/10.
Sinners
So I didn’t even predict Sinners in my way-too-early Best Picture lineup last year, but then again, who was? Much less that it would break the record for most Oscar nominations. Ryan Coogler shocked us all by turning what sounded like a fun horror flick on paper into a deeper rumination on cultural assimilation and a group of Black people trying to make their way in early America. Of course, after it premiered and became the hottest movie in the country, it became a staple of my predictions for the remainder of the season.
One Battle After Another
Thank God I didn’t fully buy into the murmurs of mixed-to-bad screen tests for this film. Paul Thomas Anderson was due for an Oscar, and that kept this film in the mix throughout the season, although I did get nervous early in the season. I rode with this all year long and it paid off big time, with the film winning six total awards including the big one.
Hamnet
Another movie that I had correct all season, at least in my official predictions released here. I know I moved it out of my lineup on the podcast at one point, but it went wire to wire in my formal predictions here. It was considered a bigger swing at the beginning of the year, so it was fun to watch it become a juggernaut that ultimately finished in the probable top five.
Frankenstein
I went all in on Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein to win Best Picture this season, and although I ultimately guessed wrong on that front, the film came on strong for me despite coming out to shaky early reception. I never budged off this movie in my official predictions, and The Academy proved my hunches right that their love for GDT is strong enough to propel this movie farther than most thought it could go. It even finished thirds in terms of award totals on the night behind only the two big ponies.
Sentimental Value
This was a big swing that immediately bit me in the ass. Everyone was predicting this to make the cut as Neon’s big film entering Cannes, and I tried to zig where other people zagged. That’s more fun! My hope was that a different contender would come forward as the Cannes favorite and this might slip. Unfortunately it cost me a fairly easy stat in my early predictions. Of course, this cemented itself as one of my predictions as soon as Cannes ended.
Marty Supreme
At the beginning of the season, I had strong doubts about this Timothée Chalamet ping pong movie being Best Picture material. It had the backing of A24 and it had a strong Christmas release date, but I thought maybe it ends up being more commercial. Of course, it ultimately won me over as my favorite film of the year by far. I actually hopped on the bandwagon early enough though, as other A24 options fell flat at Cannes and I realized this is the only reasonable pick for A24.
Bugonia
I struggled heavily early on with whether Bugonia would be the type of Yorgos Lanthimos movie to make the Best Picture cut, or the kind the Academy shies away from. It ultimately did make the cut, of course, although it was much closer to missing out than Poor Things a few years ago. And it never did make my predictions until the final round right before nominations, as I still had my eyes on some late-breaking “safer” picks. I’m glad it ultimately got the nod though.
Train Dreams
I quite enjoyed Train Dreams when it finally hit Netflix, but the Sundance standout just didn’t seem like it would quite have the steam early in the year. Further complicating its chances were bigger jewels in the Netflix slate: remember Jay Kelly, Ballad of a Small Player and House of Dynamite? With that in mind, Train Dreams did not make my predictions until the very end, as I had a hard time seeing it emerge as Netflix’s No. 2 until it made it’s late break for momentum in late December.
The Secret Agent
It took a long time for me to accept that The Secret Agent would make the Best Picture lineup, as there were two bigger movies sucking up the air from Cannes. Not to say TSA didn’t do well: it won awards for both director and actor there. But I didn’t want to overreact just because of what happened with I’m Still Here the year before. But it turned out to be exactly the right path. It still seems like a thin race considering the other option left off the table.
F1
While I enjoyed F1, I was not thrilled with it making Best Picture as I thought the story was a bit too standard to be honored this highly. But even though I never predicted F1 to make the cut, I wasn’t exactly shocked. In my early predictions, I noted how F1 is directed by Joseph Kosinski and could follow the Top Gun: Maverick path of high-octane thrills to the final lineup.
It Was Just an Accident
The brilliant film by Iranian director Jafar Panahi only just missed the cut it seems, and rounded out my final predictions as my lone miss. It felt like a battle between this and TSA, and the Brazilian contingent may have pushed TSA over the line. Ironically, I expressed doubts about this one’s Oscar chances all season because of it being less accessible to The Academy and now that seems correct. It may have won the Palme d’Or, but it was still overshadowed by Sentimental Value ultimately.
After the Hunt
This is one of those you look back and laugh about. I had read the script, which still feels like a Best Picture movie in my heart. With that in mind, I rode this train until it completely wrecked at Venice before finally having to give it up. I still haven’t seen the movie, by the way. The version in my head reigns supreme and you can’t take it away from me.
Wicked: For Good
I put my faith in this sequel all season long, truly believing Jon M. Chu could find a way to fix the musical’s flaws and deliver a better finale. It turns out he couldn’t really do that, and the movie suffered as a mid offering. It is still INSANE that the movie completely blanked at the Oscars, but it definitely didn’t deserve a BP slot.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
None of us really wanted the third Avatar film to make it into Best Picture, but it was heard to bet against going in. It remains a cinematic spectacle like no other, despite the story being absolute trash. And it came out so late, it took up a spot until proven otherwise. Moving forward we won’t have to give this franchise the benefit of the doubt, clearing room for more fun picks.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Yet again, a victim of trying to predict what the Academy will go for. We all expressed our disdain for the idea of yet another music biopic hogging space in this race, but I stuck with it out of apathy. But as the film premiered, it became clear this was actually going to break the streak of these movies getting in. Just in time for me to turn my back on Michael. Only for the Academy, I’m sure, to disappoint me once again.
Rental Family
One of my two huge swings in the early season almost paid off. Remember when everyone had this chalked up for Searchlight right before it hit TIFF? I sure do. And then it bombed out of the race. I still enjoyed the movie though. So close.
That’s a wrap on this season, but stay tuned as I make my official predictions for the new season next week and figure out what to do with this series as the new race takes shape.
