Hello, everybody, and welcome back to another edition of Poll Position. I am happy to announce that this series is about to shift gears as we are nearing the end of the qualifying run and have most of our contenders in place.
There have been some exciting shifts in the Best Picture race that could have trickle effects down the ballot as well, and that will be the focus of this week’s article complete with a new set of predictions for the Best Picture race for both the Oscars and our own SAWards.
The series will continue weekly with deeper looks at Best Director, Lead Actor and Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, Original and Adapted Screenplay, and so on.
The big Best Picture shakeup appears to be the arrival of Wicked. It was hard to put a lot of stock in this film before first reactions came in—some of the cinematography in the trailer looks bland, to say the least, and so many of these adaptations have faltered before. Not to mention these late-breaking musicals have missed the mark before (like The Color Purple just last season).
But initial reactions for the film have been effusive, and it appears to be a box office juggernaut, if not quite on the level of Barbie. Remember, despite Barbie’s struggles in some of the other categories, it still slid pretty easily into the Best Picture race. Reviews have pinpointed the performances of Cynthia Erivo playing Elphaba (The Wicked Witch)and Ariana Grande as Glinda (The Good Witch). Both actresses could contend for Oscar noms, Erivo as lead actress and Grande in supporting. Grande may have the better chance with especially rave reviews and a weaker field.
This year’s Barbenheimer, Wicked opens on the same day as Gladiator II which has also had Best Picture hopes (I had it in my last predictions). However, it appears to me and many others that Wicked is eclipsing it and could end up on the chopping block despite support for Denzel Washington in the supporting actor category, with many even predicting a win for the veteran.
September 5 continues to be a tricky movie to predict as some pundits have launched it into the projected nominees while others have dismissed it. For example, all three pundits on For Your Consideration (Perri Nemiroff, Jeff Schneider, and Scott Mantz) had September 5 on their prediction lists, while the twins at The Oscar Expert dismissed the movie as a serious contender. It sounds like a movie up my alley, so I may have to go with a hopediction here and slot it in sight unseen.
I’m excited about the positive movement for The Substance, which pundits have recently come around to projecting to squeeze into the race. While most critics have lauded the film, there have been concerns about how The Academy will treat the film, but it appears to be playing well with voters.
There are a few movies that are just absolute locks at this point to be included in this race, including my frontrunners Anora and The Brutalist. One of these movies will win the top prize, mark my words. Another contender that seems to be pretty safe is Emilia Perez which just dropped on Netflix finally so we can weigh in! Don’t be shocked though if this currently strong contender starts to fall down the list as it is divisive with audiences (having personally seen it, I don’t think this one will do well here outside of maybe lead and supporting actress).
Sawwys are much harder to predict at this point. The Brutalist will likely miss the cutoff, and I don’t have a good bead yet on the potential for something like Civil War to possibly sneak in. But for now I have it and Saturday Night rounding out the field of 10.
Best Picture (Oscars)
- The Brutalist
- Anora
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nickel Boys
- September 5
- Wicked
- Emilia Perez
- The Substance
- Sing Sing
Best Picture (SAWards)
- Dune: Part Two
- The Substance
- Challengers
- Nosferatu
- Anora
- Sing Sing
- Wicked
- Conclave
- Saturday Night
- Civil War
