Welcome back to the new weekly edition of Poll Position! Now that we’re in the thick of the season, I’ll be diving into each big category week by week to assess who’s in, who’s out, and who’s in between. First up is Best Actor.
Timothee Chalamet
We’re starting out with a category that just may be open and shut this year. On the backs of strong reviews at a special New York Film Festival screening of Marty Supreme, it looks like Timothee Chalamet is coming for that crown after finishing second in last year’s race for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown.
Chalamet plays Marty Mauser in his quest to gain notoriety as the best ping pong player in the game, as well as expanding the sport’s footprint in America. According to critic reviews, this loosely-based biopic from Josh Safdie hews closer to the Safdie Brothers critical darling Uncut Gems than people might have anticipated and the raves for Chalamet in particular have been off the charts, with many hailing it as his best performance.
At this point, he is a lock for the nomination unless the NYFF reactions prove to be far overblown once the movie screens more widely near Christmas. Even still, this isn’t the strongest year for the category, so expect Chalamet to be in this five.
Leonardo DiCaprio
DiCaprio is well-established and is the lead of One Battle After Another, which according to most pundits is the most likely film to win Best Picture with chances that the film’s rapturous reception leading to sweeps across the board. I personally think Hamnet might come along and steal that crown, but it stands that OBAA will be one of the top dogs at the Oscars, and Leo is going to come along with that for the nomination.
I don’t think this performance from Leo will garner him his second Oscar; he is terrific in the role but isn’t given that kind of dramatic range usually necessary to get it across the finish line. That seemed to be the initial thoughts for Leo’s chances when the movie debuted, but that has shifted over the past two weeks with many now thinking Leo can win it all. It’s something to watch out for because perception is often reality when it comes to the Oscars.
Jeremy Allen White
None of us here at Poll Position are particularly disappointed that the Best Picture stock is plummeting for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, but it does make it trickier to predict whether Jeremy Allen White will make this list or not. Can JAW be the sole nomination for this movie?
Traditionally, you ignore music biopics at your own risk—but this is also not a flashy “nail down the mannerisms of beloved celebrity” biopic that has succeeded in the past. That’s probably for the better for the movie and performance, but might be less interesting to Academy voters if it’s not that “transformative” performance. Still, I don’t know of a stronger bet right now.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Speaking of transformative performances, there’s a lot of buzz about The Rock in Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine thanks in part to a hair and makeup transformation to turn the blockbuster actor into MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Reviews of this movie kept me from heading to the theater to see it in it’s limited time in theaters—the lack of critical love for the movie and the box office dud could doom The Rock in the category as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the movie completely blank at The Oscars.
That said, The Rock is going to be campaigning for this award HARD, and Christopher Nolan recently gave him a boost by lauding the performance as one of the best of the year. It seems many critics disagree—they do celebrate the performance as strong, but not great. There are also two minds about whether Hollywood will be inclined to allow Johnson to go immediately from big movie star to legitimate actor just because he put some makeup on in an indie.
Jesse Plemons
Sight unseen, I am rooting for this performance to get in the five, but that may be dependent on whether Bugonia can crack the Best Picture race. It’s in the Top 15 right now I’d say, but it may need to make the cut to bring Plemons along for the ride. It’s a quirky role, with Plemons playing a conspiratorial young man who kidnaps a CEO (Emma Stone) believing that she is an alien. Will the Academy go for a weird performance like that when other options are on the board? Here’s hoping.
Michael B. Jordan
A lot of people believe Michael B. Jordan can crack the five for his work in Sinners, given that is a top five film for Best Picture. But I have been adamant from the jump that I can’t see Jordan in this race. Are we awarding him for his performance as Smoke or Stack? Or are we doing it for both performances? I just can’t justify giving Jordan a nom when, to me, he did not do a terrific job of creating differences between the twins through body language, speech style or any other method. I often couldn’t remember who was who even despite obvious costume cues to remind me.
But beyond the dual performance, I thought Jordan was solid in the role, but he didn’t quite give me anything that really wowed me. It also runs up agains the other issue I had with Sinners, which is that Smoke/Stack are not even clearly the lead. That duty is split with Miles Caton. Without the story solidly focusing on Smoke/Stack, it takes away from the lead element for me.
Despite all of that, I’d be happy to see Michale B. Jordan nominated more generally for his stellar work across multiple films, even if I don’t think this is the role(s) that should gain that honor.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent is fittingly sneaking around this Oscars race. It made its debut at Cannes and was warmly received. Wagner Moura took home the acting trophy for his performance. But compared to Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident, this didn’t really have the same level of momentum.
But something could be brewing. With a fairly weak field and a strong Brazilian fervor around Academy Awards, it’s easy to see a repeat of the Fernanda Torres situation last year for I’m Still Here. In that case, Torres shocked by winning the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Actress (Mikey Madison and Demi Moore were in Musical/Comedy) and launching herself into the Actress race and securing a spot for the movie in Best Picture.
It’s for this reason that Moura is popping up as a strong contender in this race. DiCaprio, Chalamet, White and Jordan could all wind up in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. It’s definitely something to watch out for as the race progresses.
Ethan Hawke
As we get closer to nailing down the group of five, a few other performances are starting to crop up into the conversation. I had personally written off Blue Moon as an Oscar thing in any way, but Hawke is starting to pick up some heat. Then I saw the trailer—while the movie doesn’t particularly interest me, Hawke is another pick for a transformative performance as he really seems to be a different person from a combination of hair/makeup and his facial/body expression.
Hawke plays Lorenz Hart (who?) at a bar on the night of the debut of Oklahoma! by Oscar Hammerstein and Hart’s former writing partner Richard Rogers (oh). That’s a great setup for a character study, and from the looks of it, Hawke really embodies the character. This is a good sleeper pick.
Daniel Day-Lewis
If Daniel Day-Lewis is acting in a film in any given year, you have to consider whether he might get an Oscar nod. And from all reviews of his latest film Anemone (written and directed by his son), Ddl is as powerful as ever.
The problem is, that performance comes in a film that apparently has little else to do other than showcase his acting. With little support for the film overall and other performances to choose from, it feels like the Academy will allow DDL to sit this one out and chalk that up as one for his son.
George Clooney
George Clooney had a ton of heat coming into awards season as he steps into a tole tailor-made for him with Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly. But when you play the titular character of a movie that has kind of flopped, can you still make it into the Best Actor race? To be fair, there is still a wild chance that Jay Kelly makes the Best Picture lineup as Netflix tries to figure out which of its films to put forward. If it makes that hurdle, Clooney could bust in. Otherwise, I wouldn’t really expect it.
Predictions
Oscars
- Timothee Chalamet
- Leonard DiCaprio
- Jeremy Allen White
- Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
- Ethan Hawke
SAWards
- Timothee Chalamet
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Jesse Plemons
- Michael B. Jordan
- Lee Byung-hun
My Five (projection)
- Timothee Chalamet
- Jesse Plemons
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Jeremy Allen White
- Lee Byung-Hun
See all 98th Academy Award predictions below:
Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress
