For the past several years, the Best Actress race has been the most enjoyable to watch. Well, move aside, ladies; it’s time for the supporting men to take the stage.
Sean Penn
Everybody is raving about Sean Penn’s performance in One Battle After Another. Stephen Lockjaw is one of the year’s best characters, a villain both intimidating and pathetic. And Penn plays the hell out of the character in a performance worthy of an Academy Award.
Don’t start handing out trophies just yet though. In addition to being up against two other towering performances, Penn has some baggage he will need to overcome. The man has said and done some controversial things offscreen, and that could play a role among Academy voters that is hard to measure. I wouldn’t put too much weight into that, but it’s worth thinking about.
I think most people, myself included, will be perfectly happy with Penn taking home this prize.
Stellan Skarsgåard
All three of these frontrunners benefit from having a staggering amount of screentime for a “supporting role. Reviews of Sentimental Value say that veteran Stellan Skarsgård could well be considered the lead of the film, although supporting does not appear to be category fraud.
Skarsgård has been around Hollywood for quite some time and with a performance drawing such rave reviews, the Academy could take the excuse to give the man his flowers. It’s apparently a good, emotional role and as a bonus, he plays a filmmaker. Gotta imagine the Academy would eat that up!
Paul Mescal
I think the proverbial “third horse” in this three-horse race is maybe being slept on. Conventional wisdom is leading people to predict Penn or Skarsgård for the win, but I think Hamnet is right there vying for Best Picture and it is basically a two-hander between Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. While Mescal technically is a support for Buckley on her grieving journey, Mescal is also playing a character going through those emotions and has some flashy moments according to reviews.
Mescal as an emotional William Shakespeare is a great role, and would also be maybe the most likable character of these three (of course, we love to hate Lockjaw).
Benicio del Toro
I’d like to see some folks from other movies get a chance to shine, but there’s no doubt that Benicio del Toro is fantastic in One Battle and it would be pretty easy for him to slip into one of these last two spots. His character is a bit more easygoing and subtle, so there’s a chance he is left out for some of these other contenders. Let’s bet a few small beers on it.
Delroy Lindo
I really hope this is where Sinners can break into the acting categories and get some representation. Delroy Lindo is just generally awesome, and he’s great in the movie. The issue for Sinners is that there is so much ensemble, it’s hard for an individual supporting player to be singled out.
Miles Caton
As I was saying. This is a bit tougher as Miles Caton is an actual newcomer to the acting stage, and while his singing blew me away in Sinners, his performance was more just solid to me. He does get a boost from being a quasi-lead in the film though, and voters will be reminded of him every time they listen to “I Lied to You.”
Jacob Elordi
I can’t believe how likely this is becoming, but every day more people see Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, Jacob Elordi continues to bring in praise as Frankenstein’s Monster. Whether his transformation through hair and makeup will be a positive or negative impact is yet to be seen. The film hits Netflix on Nov. 7, so we will see how the public at large feels about the performance.
Jonathan Bailey
The closer we get to Wicked: For Good coming out, the more I begin to believe Jonathan Bailey could get into this race. He notably got a SAG nomination last year and could have an even bigger role in this finale.
First reactions have been coming out though for the sequel and I haven’t heard a ton of talk about Bailey’s performance, so I can’t quite believe he is going to crack this five. But that could all change when we see the film later this month.
Adam Sandler
Adam Sandler has been a staple of this category since his comedic appearance at last year’s Academy Awards presentation, which appeared to be an early stunt to help Sandler get recognition for his performance in Jay Kelly. The big question is how Jay Kelly is going to perform. It’s one of those films that is still right on the bubble despite pretty middling reviews all around. Without getting in Best Picture, it will be hard for Sandler to show up here.
Jeremy Strong
It looks very much like Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is dropping out of the Best Picture race, and I think that means we must bid adieu to Jeremy Strong. People who have seen the film don’t have heaps of praise for the performance anyway, but now it looks like the movie is Jeremy Allen White or bust.
Predictions
Oscars
- Paul Mescal
- Sean Penn
- Stellan Skarsgård
- Delroy Lindo
- Jacob Elordi
SAWards
- Sean Penn
- Paul Mescal
- Benicio del Toro
- Delroy Lindo
- David Jonsson (The Long Walk)
My Five (projected)
- Paul Mescal
- Sean Penn
- Stellan Skarsgård
- Delroy Lindo
- Jacob Elordi
See all 98th Academy Award predictions below:
Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Director | Best Adapted Screenplay
