For the past several years, Best Actress has been THE race to watch once nominations roll in. Just last year, we had Mikey Madison (Anora) vs Demi Moore (The Substance). Before that, it was Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things). And of course, before that, it was Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
If you’re looking forward to seeing what exciting battle awaits between top contenders—it’s time to temper your expectations. Buckley has this in the bag.
Jessie Buckley
There’s always at least one acting race that feels locked up before the race even begins. In past years that’s been supporting actor. This year, it looks like Jessie Buckley is set to run away with the Best Actress trophy.
Buckley portrays Agnes Shakespeare in the upcoming film Hamnet from director Chloe Zhao as she processes grief and how her husband William turns that into his famous play Hamlet. The film is getting rave reviews out of festivals, winning the coveted audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival and picking up wins at Telluride and others along the way. It currently has a 92 on Metacritic, up there with supposed frontrunner One Battle After Another.
And the center of every glowing review is Buckley in what might end up being the performance of the year, regardless of category. I don’t want to get into spoilers, but my biggest concern is this film being a period piece “weepy,” but despite confirmation that this film is devastating audiences, it is also being described as a cathartic experience that wins audiences over by the end.
Cynthia Erivo
There are still those among us—yes, even here at Screenage Wasteland—that believe the Wicked: For Good girls won’t even be nominated this year as repeat nominees in consecutive years. They could still be right, if the sequel falls flat.
But in a relatively weak category with all signs pointing to a knockout conclusion to the story will likely propel Erivo to be the clear if distant second to Buckley. Although the second half of the stage musical is maligned compared to the iconic first act, there is reason to believe director Jon Chu has taken the core of that act and expanded and deepened it. And that second half is clearly Elphaba’s story to dominate the emotional beats that will give Erivo territory to work.
Renata Reinsve
Coming comfortably in third place is Renata Reinsve, who has been on the radar for a while, thanks in part to her last project with director Joachim Treir, The Worst Person In the World. The latest Trier film Sentimental Value is the lead horse for Neon despite finishing second at the Cannes Film Festival to another Neon film, and Reinsve is the lead with strong reviews for her performance.
With Sentimental Value as a probable Top 6 finisher for Best Picture, behind two films with no lead actress at all, it feels pretty safe to bet that Reinsve will come along in this category. It’s also a story about Hollywood, despite being an international film, which may play into Academy favors.
Emma Stone
These last two spots get a bit trickier and I can see several options. It’s hard to bet though against two-time Best Actress winner Emma Stone in a film that is at the very least close to Best Picture. The role is there: she plays a high-powered CEO abducted by a pair of conspiratorial men who believe she is an alien bent on world destruction.
Bugonia also reteams Stone with director Yorgos Lanthimos, who led her to a Best Actress win just two years ago for Poor Things. Although early reviews do seem to pinpoint Stone as a lead role, she is not dominating this film like she did with Poor Things, and if this is not in Best Picture, it would not be shocking to see her miss.
Amanda Seyfried
There was some hope that The Testament of Ann Lee might be a Best Picture player. Perhaps it still is, but it appears to be on the outside looking in until further notice. But when Rental Family failed to meet expectations at TIFF, Searchlight scrambled for another Oscar player to push: picking up Ann Lee.
Among reviews of the film, Amanda Seyfried is the clear standout in her portrayal of the Shakers founder and self-proclaimed Messianic figure Ann Lee. The question is whether the divisive reception to the movie will hold Seyfried back from breaking into this five.
Rose Byrne
In a stronger year, Rose Byrne wouldn’t have much of a chance to crack this top five in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, a little-seen A24 film that is nowhere near the Best Picture race. And yet, as we run low on options, Byrne is maintaining some opportunity in this race. Maybe the biggest obstacle is that this is apparently an extremely tough movie to watch in terms of anxiety and stress. That could keep enough people from supporting Byrne.
Jennifer Lawrence
Jennifer Lawrence is probably the bigger name than Rose Byrne, even though Byrne has been around Hollywood for longer. But I’ve seen critics say that Lawrence’s character and performance in director Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love is similar to Byrne’s. And when comparing the two, Byrne is the more impressive of the two.
Still, name value means a lot in these races, so it’s easy to see a world where Lawrence begins to gain more steam with the Academy than Byrne and becomes the more likely option of the two.
Kate Hudson
Coming out of nowhere is Kate Hudson in the upcoming music biopic Song Sung Blue, where she will team up with Hugh Jackman to tell the true story of a couple who perform as a Neil Diamond tribute band.
This wouldn’t really stand out as a performance to watch based on the trailer, but people more familiar with the true story say Hudson’s character is going to go through the wringer—this isn’t just a standard happy-go-lucky music biopic.
It’s also worth noting that Focus Features has already staked her claim in the lead actress race, signaling that the studio might believe she is a real contender in this race. Regardless, chatter is priming me to suspect possibly the best performance of Hudson’s career—or at least since her Academy Award-nominated performance in Almost Famous over two decades ago.
Chase Infiniti
We would be remiss not to mention Chase Infiniti, who gives a terrific supporting performance in One Battle After Another that is, for whatever reason, being classified as a lead now. I’ve seen and heard the arguments that Infiniti should be able to be considered the lead in this, but I just don’t agree on any level. And that’s coming from someone who thought her supporting performance was the best of the three supporting ladies here.
Even if you can classify Infiniti as lead, is her third-act salvo enough to lift her over true leading ladies who are carrying their films on their backs? The sheer amount of passion for the film might get her in the race, but I think she’s still on the outside looking in.
Predictions
Oscars
- Jessie Buckley
- Cynthia Erivo
- Renata Reinsve
- Emma Stone
- Amanda Seyfried
SAWards
- Jessie Buckley
- Sally Hawkins (Bring Her Back)
- Cynthia Erivo
- Emma Stone
- Chase Infiniti
My Five (Projected)
- Jessie Buckley
- Cynthia Erivo
- Sally Hawkins
- Emma Stone
- Rose Byrne
See all 98th Academy Award predictions below:
Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Director | Best Adapted Screenplay
