Poll Position: Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions

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Now that we’re done with the acting categories, let’s dissect maybe the most competitive category of the year: director. The way I see it, there are at least six extremely strong contenders vying for just five spots, and you could argue two others will be heavily considered as well.

It is basically going to be a snub no matter who is left out, and there is the possibility for some major heartburn depending on who it is.

Paul Thomas Anderson

While it’s a really fun category to examine who is and isn’t getting in this group of five, the winner feels like it might be over and done with. Obviously, One Battle After Another is sitting as the frontrunner in many categories, but it’s strongest is probably director as the chatter is that the Academy will definitely want to take this opportunity to ensure Paul Thomas Anderson takes home his first Oscar. He could be getting additional trophies too in Adapted Screenplay and, of course, Best Picture, but it feels like this is the sure place where PTA has to walk away with the win after years of phenomenal work.

Chloé Zhao

The only thing working against Chloé Zhao in this category is the fact that Zhao won Best Director—and Best Picture—for Nomadland just five years ago. Will the Academy members take that into account when marking their ballots? And of course, there’s the aforementioned concept that everyone here is going to be jonesing to give that first directing Oscar to PTA.

But it seems clear to me from early reviews and reactions that Hamnet may not just represent a return to form for Zhao but maybe her best work yet. I have it winning Best Picture right now in a shocker, and that often correlates with this category. I think this is a year the Academy can split the awards but it would be wild if Zhao is not nominated for what appears to most critical eyes to be a monumental work.

Jafar Panahi

I had my doubts earlier in the season and kind of pegged this in the same slot as Seed of a Scared Fig, which struggled to find traction last season. Even though It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d’Or, a great precursor for a Best Picture nomination, it only edged out Sentimental Value, which remains Neon’s main Oscar pony. But as the season has ticked on, this film seems to have both the staying power and attention from Neon to get in. And Panahi has the narrative, facing censorship and oppression from his government, not only to get this film made, but throughout his career. The director’s branch also tends to be a bit high-brow and could go for something like this.

Josh Safdie

The first reactions to Marty Supreme have been through the roof, to the point where maybe it is a top four contender in the Best Picture race. That makes it hard to ignore Josh Safdie in his first break from directing alongside his brother. There’s a chance though that the Academy sees this as a bit more “blockbuster,” which has hurt directors in the past. It’s hard to really get too far into the weeds with this one with more limited reactions to rely on.

Joachim Trier

Speaking of high-brow, what are the odds that The Academy selects a second international director for a Norwegian family drama? It’s hard to say since Joachim Trier was overlooked the last go-round for The Worst Person in the World, but if it comes down to Trier and Coogler, what is the process going to come down to? Descriptions of Sentimental Value say it is more of a writing and acting showcase than a typical directorial feast, so maybe that gives Coogler the slight edge.

Ryan Coogler

Here’s one that a lot of people are getting very worried about. Ryan Coogler‘s Sinners remains one of the films most capturing the zeitgeist in 2025, so why is everyone sweating bullets that Coogler could get the chop? First: Denis Villeneuve. The Academy disregarding Villeneuve’s work on both Dune films has people understandably concerned that the Oscars is very willing to snub works that feel too “genre.” And boy does this film fit that bill. Second: The Academy still doesn’t have the best track record of choosing the Black option when it comes to tight battles at the bottom of a category.

Park Chan-Wook

Park Chan-Wook enters this race the same enigma as he always has, really. So far, the Oscars haven’t bitten on his renowned work. But No Other Choice is maybe more accessible than any of his past projects. And maybe there’s wiggle room in the Best Picture race that can allow him to gain that richly deserved Oscars recognition. Or, maybe we are kidding ourselves and should just expect the same old thing.

Jon M. Chu

This one is going to upset some folks here at Screenage Wasteland, but the first reviews for Wicked: For Good have been fantastic and at some point, you have to give credit to Jon M. Chu for bringing this beloved musical to the big screen in a major way. I truly believe Chu excelled in most every way with the first movie, minus some notable problems with lighting and color grading. Some of those issues have been fixed for the sequel, while some will persist. But this sequel in particular required Chu to branch out from the original Broadway hit and find a way to bring it home in a more satisfying conclusion. It seems that he has done that in spades. This film may be a top four or five contender for Best Picture, at which point we have to wonder whether Chu is a stronger competitor here than we realize.

My predictions

Oscars

1. Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Chloé Zhao
3. Jafar Panahi
4. Josh Safdie
5. Ryan Coogler

SAWards

1. Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Ryan Coogler
3. Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys)
4. Chloé Zhao
5. ?

My five (projected)

1. Chloé Zhao
2. Ramell Ross
3. Ryan Coogler
4. Paul Thomas Anderson
5. Yorgos Lanthimos

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See all 98th Academy Award predictions below:

Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Director | Best Adapted Screenplay