Poll Position: Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions

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It’s time for Poll Position to talk about Best Supporting Actress, which is a wide-open race when it comes to claiming a nomination, but the top actress has gone wire-to-wire so far as the name to beat for the win.

Ariana Grande

Some of my SAW collaborators will balk at the thought of it, but Ariana Grande has been positioned all season as the most likely actress to win this award and nobody has stepped up to really challenge her.

All Grande has left to do, in my opinion, is put on a showstopping performance when Wicked: For Good finally hits theaters next month to claim her prize. Only a flop can open this race back up.

It appears that Grande finished as runner-up last season to Zoe Saldaña, so why wouldn’t Grande giving a similar performance get top marks this year? There’s also a long history of the award going to a supporting actress in a musical, further bolstering this likelihood. I’ll really think this is locked up, as no other supporting performances have been strong enough to gain the necessary traction to overcome her.

Amy Madigan

It’s wild how likely Amy Madigan is to get in this group of five for her insane performance as Gladys in Weapons, but I’m not mad about it. There’s no doubt that Madigan plays one of the year’s most iconic characters and steals every scene she is in. Plus she has the great hair and makeup transformation that always gives a performance that extra boost.

I think Madigan is getting into our SAWards too, and if it were up to our writers, I would not be surprised at all to see her win. Maybe our readers will support her too; time will tell.

Teyana Taylor

With Chase Infiniti moving to lead, it feels obvious that the other top supporting actress performance from One Battle After Another will be Teyana Taylor. Despite only appearing for about 40 minutes of the nearly three-hour film, Taylor makes an impression and owns the screen for that time. Her character also resonates across the rest of the film. One Battle has too much love for Taylor to miss out here.

Odessa A’zion 

This is getting tricky now. Odessa A’zion is getting the best reviews for a supporting character in Marty Supreme, which feels at least like a Top 5 Best Picture contender if not higher. A’zion is a newcomer, so it might be a bit harder for her to break in; she could even be overtaken by her co-star Gwyneth Paltrow just based on Paltrow’s veteran status.

I am choosing to have faith in the Academy (and faith in the early reviews for Anion’s performance) and have A’zion in this contention for right now. Obviously this could change once more people see the movie and the race progresses.

Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas

Here’s another predicament: Elle Fanning is, according to most people, the second-best supporting actress in Sentimental Value, but she is the more likely contender to get in, in my opinion. Why? She is more familiar to American audiences and may be more Academy-friendly than Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas. 

I feel that there are worlds where both of these actresses get in, both miss, or either one gets in. I’m not sure which of those worlds aligns with ours right now. Regardless, Fanning’s performance has received enough praise to have a shot at making this group of five.

Regina Hall

I want to preface this by saying that I think Regina Hall gives a great performance in One Battle After Another, truly. But does the movie really need to get two supporting actress nominations in when Hall does so little in the movie. Again, what she gives is GREAT, but it is so limited, I’m not sure that it deserves to crack the Top 10.

Zoe Saldaña

This is my absolutely wild, hare-brained idea. There is very little chance that Zoe Saldaña gets anywhere near an Oscar for her third time out as Neytiri in Avatar: Fire and Ash. But she has always been the best part of these films to me, and there is some work done in the second film that could set her character to go into some pretty complex places emotionally.

Obviously Saldaña is a terrific actress who can provide an Oscar-worthy performance. But in order for her to come out of nowhere, she’ll need an uncharacteristically sharp script and some help from Academy members to remember she is the actress behind the VFX character.

Emily Blunt

I am throwing in some more options, but we are getting near the bottom of the barrel honestly. Emily Blunt is apparently very strong in The Smashing Machine, but that movie seems to be dead on arrival, especially if Dwayne Johnson can’t crack into the Best Actor race. It’s possible that, if he does, Blunt could ride into this race on his coattails. But don’t bet on it.

Predictions

Oscars

1. Ariana Grande
2. Amy Madigan
3. Teyana Taylor
4. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
5. Odessa A’zion

SAWards

1. Amy Madigan
2. Teyana Taylor
3. Ariana Grande
4. Elle Fanning (Predator: Badlands)
5. Odessa A’zion

My Five (projected)

1. Ariana Grande
2. Amy Madigan
3. Teyana Taylor
4. Odessa A’zion
5. Elle Fanning (?)

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See all 98th Academy Award predictions below:

Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Director | Best Adapted Screenplay