The Oscars race for Best Actress is pretty tight, including excluding two actresses who will compete in Supporting Actress in cases of potential category fraud: Zoe Saldaña for Emilía Perez and Ariana Grande for Wicked. For the sake of my sanity, I will discuss them in the Supporting Actress race for Sawwys as well, because the Oscars has nothing on the SAWards race for Best Actress.
Mikey Madison (Anora)
I’ve recently seen some talk about Madison not winning the award for a variety of reasons: she’s too young, Anora isn’t a typical awards vehicle, etc. Just cut that out already—Madison is taking home the little golden man and has a great shot at a Sawwy as well as long as our contributors see the movie in time. She is terrific as the dancer-turned-Vegas-bride of a Russian oligarch nepo baby and the final scene brings her character home. No reason to have anyone else as a frontrunner.
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilía Perez)
I’m still a bit befuddled at this film’s likelihood of a Best Picture nom—it’s pretty wack in my opinion. Between the insane musical numbers though, there are some great performances, none better than Karla Sofia Gascon. Gascon plays the Mexican cartel drug lord Manitas—before and after he transitions to life as a woman. A transgender actress, Gascon plays both sides of the transformation very well and eventually brings some of the scary drug lord energy over after the surgeries, really cementing that these two very different-looking characters are indeed one and the same. She is likely in for an Oscar nom, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her honored with a Sawwy nom just the same.
Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Jolie plays the Opera singer Maria Callas in this biopic about the star’s life. Yawn. I’m sure Jolie is fantastic in this film and her odds of a nomination are about as good as the next few entries on this list. I doubt she gets many Sawwy votes though, if any, between the limited access to the movie and its less compelling subject matter.
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Write her name down in permanent marker for a SAWard nomination and pencil her in lightly for an Oscar. This team loves The Substance and is going to nominate it all over the map. There’s still potential for it to get zero nominations from The Academy, although steam seems to be building for it to get a Best Picture nom. Demi Moore is one of the more likely nominees as far as Oscars are concerned, battling it out with Jolie and other contenders near the bottom of the ticket.
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
You’ve got to consider holding space for Erivo as her odds for an Oscar nomination seem to be defying … expectations. There’s just a lot of goodwill behind Wicked right now and while early reactions really pumped up Grande’s performance more, there are still rave reviews for Erivo and it seems now more than ever that she will find her way into this group of five. I’ve yet to get a great read from our team on Wicked, but enough to think she will slide into our top five as well. Especially with some of the other contenders likely to miss. Some ScreenAgers are going to scoff at this, but I am really confident she makes our list of five.
Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu)
She’s barely on the Oscar bingo card right now but I am very confident that Lily-Rose Depp will be getting a Sawwy nomination here. The Hollywood Reporter call’s Depp’s performance “a revelation,” noting that Depp “can switch in an instant from weak and vulnerable to demonic,” and that “the stylized physicality of her seizures is breathtaking.” Nosferatu has a lot of anticipation from our crowd and there’s no reason to believe it won’t dominate the Sawwys alongside other standouts like The Substance and Dune: Part Two. Maybe Depp can shoot up the Oscar projections as well once the film hits theaters on Christmas Day.
Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
This movie seems like it could be up SAW’s alley, and Nicole Kidman obviously comes with a lot of name recognition and appreciation. She’s currently right on the bubble of an Oscar nomination despite this being a bit steamy for a usual Oscar performance. I doubt she will get in the Sawwy five if for no other reason than a late release date.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
I am not sure when or if this movie is releasing for us average moviegoers but there is definitely some level of heat for this performance. The movie has mostly praise and Jean-Baptiste is apparently undeniably good as a terminally angry older mother. She’s right there with Kidman on the Oscar bubble. Don’t expect her to nab a Sawwy though.
Zendaya (Challengers)
She is not really on the Oscar radar, but I have pretty good info that makes me believe Zendaya will round out our five for the SAWards. Challengers has been a team favorite for months and it’s the kind of performance that our crew has a likelihood of honoring.
Anya Taylor-Joy (Furiosa)
There could be a real shot for Anya-Taylor Joy to get a nomination from us at SAW, despite having no chance at an Oscar. There are still several of us that have not yet seen Furiosa, but a few that have seem to be up for nominating this performance. She has name recognition and previous awards recognition from this voting body, so this wouldn’t be a shock.
Florence Pugh (We Live in Time)
It sounds like Florence Pugh turns in another great performance in this film, although I’m not sure if it will be widely seen enough by voting time for Pugh to break into our SAWards list. She is not in the running for an Oscar currently.
June Squibb (Thelma)
At 95 years old, I think it’s safe to say Squibb would be the oldest SAWards nominee in history. She is not going to get an Oscar nod, but the team members here who have seen Thelma really enjoyed it and Squibb might appear on several lists. She probably won’t make the ultimate group of five, but her performance is worth acknowledging just the same.
Predictions
Oscars
- Mikey Madison
- Karla Sofia Gascon
- Cynthia Erivo
- Angelina Jolie
- Demi Moore
Sawwys
- Mikey Madison
- Demi Moore
- Cynthia Erivo
- Zendaya
- Lily-Rose Depp
My Five
- Mikey Madison
- Demi Moore
- Cynthia Erivo
- Karla Sofia Gascon
- *Lily-Rose Depp
