OK, so these aren’t the insanely early predictions of last year, where I was guessing blind a week after the Oscars ceremony, but I’m still formally announcing my first round of Best Picture predictions when 95% of the field remains unseen.
If you’re jonesing for even crazier predictions, you can see me predict Wuthering Heights back in February here (plus Raf Stitt picks The Bride).
Before I jump into my picks, let’s look at the contenders.
Obvious Day 1 Contenders
The Odyssey
This is the easy, safe pick to be nominated for Best Picture. If it weren’t for Oppenheimer sweeping the awards in 2023—including best director for Christopher Nolan—this would be the odds-on favorite juggernaut to start the season. As it stands, it’s hard to imagine this timeless, sprawling epic getting less than 10 nominations even if it ultimately doesn’t win very many. Despite online criticism of early looks at the costumes, armor is an easy slot in for the category. Ludwig Görannson is providing the score, so I’m already penciling it in for the win there as well. Will Matt Damon really be able to notch his third Best Actor nomination as Odysseus? Who else from the insane ensemble cast might make the cut? I have Anne Hathaway getting a supporting actress nomination for now, in part because of how difficult that particular field is to predict this year. Perhaps someone like Jon Bernthal or Tom Holland could also shine and land their own recognition. Everyone is raving about the Trojan Horse sequence released at CinemaCon and select IMAX showings, but there are no tricks needed here: The Odyssey is a known threat charging in.
Dune: Part Three
In a sane universe, we wouldn’t be in such a pickle about how to predict Dune: Part Three here. But The Academy has slighted Denis Villeneuve in director for both of his prior efforts, and also hasn’t cared to give the actors any love. Worse, Dune: Part Two even missed tech nominations that shocked everyone considering the cinematic marvels put on screen. So this trilogy-capper could be a rebound that The Academy finally gives its flowers, or it could continue its downward trend and be a complete nonplayer. Considering the excitement right now for the CinemaCon footage, which viewers compared to the opening of Saving Private Ryan, I am leaning toward the sense that The Academy will come to its senses and Dune could be a real threat to win the big award, with Villeneuve finally coming along. Plus, it will be fresh on voters’ minds with its December release date. The one obstacle will be whether Villeneuve can stick the landing, as even fans of the original novels begin to diverge on the story of Dune: Messiah.
Wild Horse Nine
This is my pick to win it all early in the year. Wild Horse Nine follows two CIA agents sent to Easter Island in the 1960s on some kind of mission to shake up Chile’s political landscape. The last two films from Martin McDonagh have earned him both picture and screenplay nominations, plus a director nomination for Banshees of Inisherin. He has also had tremendous success getting his actors awards recognition. Three of his actors from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were nominated (with Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell winning) and three from Banshees as well. He could get as many as four here, with John Malkovich in prime position for a leading nom and Sam Rockwell likely to be campaigned in supporting despite seemingly being a co-lead. Then there’s Steve Buscemi, who plays the boys’ boss back at the CIA and has a great narrative for a nomination. Parker Posey is the next most notable name on the cast, but early reactions say is is Mariana di Girolamo that steals the show as a supporting actress. This is a shoo-in for an Original Screenplay nomination and Carter Burwell provides the score.
Digger
Tom Cruise hasn’t been nominated in a leading role since Jerry Maguire 30 years ago. Alejandro Iñárritu’s Digger sets out to change that, giving Cruise a transformative drama role for the first time in a long time. Footage shown at CinemaCon reveals Cruise to be portraying an octogenarian with a southern accent, a belly and a big personality. He is apparently the wealthiest man on Earth and causes an environmental disaster when he fails to heed advice, leading the world to rely on him to “dig” the world out of the mess he made. One of the people demanding he set things straight will be John Goodman as the President of the United States. Viewers at the showing compared the vibe of the footage to Dr. Strangelove. So long as the movie doesn’t flop with audiences, this looks like a sure bet for an Original Screenplay nomination as well.
They’ve Got It in the Cannes
Fjord
Any sensible betting man would be putting his money on Fjord to walk away from the Cannes Film Festival this year with the Palme d’Or. It enters the contest as the crown jewel of Neon’s slate, the winner of six straight trophies, four of which were nominated for Best Picture. Fjord stars Renata Reinsve and Sebastian Stan as a Romanian-Norwegian couple who move to a remote Norwegian coastal village. Their lives descend into chaos when suspected of abusive, strict parenting following injuries to their daughter, placing them under intense investigation by local authorities. Directed by Cristian Mungiu, this international heavyweight will be largely in English, making it more accessible to The Academy. It can even miss the Palme d’Or and still make the cut, like Sentimental Value last year. Both Stan and Reinsve are primed to compete for lead acting nominations and it could compete as an original screenplay as well. Mungiu could be the International director to break into the nominations as well.
Fatherland
Fatherland is a hotly anticipated film for fans of director Paweł Pawlikowski, whose most recent offering was the 2018 film Cold War, a black-and-white romance set against a Cold War backdrop. Previously under the working title of 1949, Fatherland follows Nobel laureate Thomas Mann and his daughter, Erika, on a tense, post-war road trip across a divided Germany during the Cold War, exploring themes of exile, identity, and guilt. Sounds Oscar-baity, and the daughter Erika is being played by Sandra Hüller, who is primed for awards recognition with a busy year. This would be a potential contender for international feature film (Fjord may be ineligible if English is its primary language).
All of a Sudden
Director Ryusuke Hamaguchi is looking to follow up his success getting Drive My Car into the Oscars race with a nomination for All of a Sudden, his French-language debut. follows a nursing home director (Virginie Efira) who, amid staff resistance, adopts a unique “Humanitude” care method. Her life transforms upon meeting a terminally ill Japanese playwright (Tao Okamoto), with the film exploring intimate connections and mortality through the lens of a correspondence, inspired by real-life letters. That makes it a candidate for adapted screenplay, and if the movie is particularly strong, it could bring along performances. Plus, Neon has the U.S. distribution rights, which at this point has proven to be a major stamp of awards potential.
Coward
This is a longer shot, but I wouldn’t count out director Lukas Dhont making his return after the critically-acclaimed film Close a few years back. Set in WWI, Coward will tell the story of a young Belgian soldier named Pierre who meets a flamboyant soldier named Francis, and together the two start a theatrical revue to combat misery and wartime rhetoric. It’s hard to say what categories this may show up in other than international film until we see how it fares in the competition next month.
Hope
It’s been a decade since director Na Hong-Jin wowed audiences with The Wailing, and now he returns with another genre feast with Hope. The movie’s synopsis describes a mysterious discovery made on the outskirts of a remote harbor town, leaving the residents in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before. It’s rare for a sci-fi flick like this to make the cut for the official competition at Cannes, so we may be in for a real treat. Descriptions of the footage shown at CinemaCon sounds gnarly, and have bumped this way up my anticipation list. Oh, and Neon has U.S. distribution.
Big Blockbusters
Disclosure Day
I haven’t been feeling as good lately about Steven Spielberg’s return to his bread-and-butter. I’ve wanted more from the trailers, but I’m still hoping to be proven wrong when we finally get to see Disclosure Day. The exact plot is still under wraps, but it’s aliens and that’s something Spielberg has done exceptionally well. It’s hard right now to predict this in Best Picture or across the board really until we know more, although Emily Blunt is quite unsettling in the trailers.
Project Hail Mary
We’ve all seen Project Hail Mary and know that it’s quite good. As Rocky would say, “Amaze! Amaze! Amaze!” But Oscars nomination morning might as well be 11 light-years away right now; can this blockbuster sci-fi really land or will it drift away? Some people are wondering aloud how it compares to Sinners, which debuted in April. I don’t think this will have that kind of staying power—believing differently ignores the immense cultural significance of Sinners compared to this fun but ultimately disposable adventure. It’s more comparable to F1, which came out during the summer with a lackluster story but strong thrills and visuals. Hail Mary instead has a stronger story but less visceral excitement. I am also not buying Ryan Gosling in the best actor race, in part just because of how crowded it is. He does go to some emotional depths here, but it never feels raw enough (in my opinion) to reach Oscar levels. Honestly Sandra Hüller might be my favorite eligible performance from this film, but might be too small to make the cut. The movie can definitely nab some tech nominations of course.
Narnia
I am endlessly fascinated by Greta Gerwig choosing to adapt, of all things, The Magician’s Nephew from the Chronicles of Narnia series. We will see Aslan and the White Witch that we know from the classic tale of The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe, but we will not have the wardrobe or the Pevensie children that we are accustomed to following. Instead, we follow two children named Digory and Polly as they travel through a couple of dimensions, freeing Jadis (the witch) and ultimately witnessing the very creation of Narnia (Aslan forms it with a song). I have begun rereading it and halfway through, I’m unsure of how this will translate. There’s opportunity for some gorgeous sets and scenes, but the overall story seems a bit straightforward fantasy juvenile adventure. Gerwig must have plans to imbue deeper themes, or the deeper themes must arrive in the back half of the story. Emma Mackey is playing the witch, so I have her as a supporting actress contender since villain roles often provide a lot of opportunity to show off. The rest is too up on the air, but Netflix does not have a ton on its slate to push so this appears to be its big play.
Auteur Projects
Cry to Heaven
Based on the cult classic novel by Anne Rice, there’s a ton of Oscars buzz for this film from director/fashion designer Tom Ford. The novel explores the glamorous yet brutal world of the castrati, male sopranos castrated in 18th century Italy to preserve their voices. The story centers on Tonio Treschi, a young nobleman betrayed and castrated by his brother, and Guido Maffeo, a talented castrato who mentors him, focusing on themes of revenge, music, artistic passion, and identity. It’s going to look gorgeous assuredly, if it comes out this year. Very little information has been released on the film itself, including which actors will be in which roles. Nicholas Hoult and Aaron Taylor-Johnson are the biggest stars attached, but do not fit the ages of the characters as portrayed in the novel. Owen Cooper of Adolescence fame could be playing the lead, but book readers say some scenarios the protagonist faces would be uncouth for a child actor. This should be hot on your Oscar radar, but it’s hard to say just what to do with it until we know more.
Untitled Jesse Eisenberg musical
We don’t even know the name of Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to the tremendous A Real Pain, but we do have a synopsis: a shy woman (played by Julianne Moore) discovers her voice and loses herself in the role after being unexpectedly cast in a community theater production. Paul Giamatti stars as the demanding theater director. This seems like A24’s main awards player and it’s easy to see it nabbing screenplay and acting nominations at least.
The Social Reckoning
Writer Aaron Sorkin is offering up this spiritual sequel to the Best Picture winner The Social Network. What has many people a bit nervous is Sorkin is also directing this time, not David Fincher. The film will follow whistleblower Frances Haugen (Mikey Madison) as she goes to a journalist portrayed by Jeremy Allen White about company secrets and dangers at Facebook. Jeremy Strong is stepping in as Mark Zuckerberg, and CinemaCon attendees have raved about the first glimpse at his portrayal. This seems to be a timely and relevant film that will provide an acting showcase.
Biopics
Michael
A music biopic about Michael Jackson that plays it as safe as possible? Please, dear God, protect us from Michael wasting a slot.
Artificial
Luca Guadagnino will try once again to find Oscars success with a biopic of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who will be portrayed by Andrew Garfield. For those who don’t know, OpenAI is the company behind ChatGPT among other things. The film centers on the high-stakes, five-day boardroom crisis in 2023 in which Altman was abruptly removed and quickly returned. It is described as a comedic drama that explores the “leveraged, marginalized and ultimately betrayed” drama behind the scenes, featuring a portrayal of the AI industry’s tumultuous state. Guadagnino made what many here believe to be the best movie of 2024 with Challengers but failed to make the Oscars cut. he followed that up with After the Hunt, which fell flat on its face. Will this be a different story? It’s too soon to tell.
Being Heumann
Best-Picture winning director Sian Heder (CODA) is back with another film featuring a cast with disabilities, this time based on the true story of disability rights activist Judy Heumann and her leading of the historic 1977 28-day sit-in at the San Francisco Federal Building to enforce Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act. Ruth Madely, an actress who requires a wheelchair, will portray Heumann with supporting roles from Mark Ruffalo and Dylan O’Brien. People like to knock CODA, but Heder can certainly make a feel-good film that highlights the humanity of people with disabilities. You can’t overlook this as an Oscars player.
Tony
One more potential player in A24’s bag, director Matt Johnson (Blackberry, Nirvana the Band the Show the Movie) is on board to direct the story of famous chef Anthony Bourdain with Dominic Sessa, breakout star of The Holdovers, in the titular role. Obviously, considering Sessa’s age, the biopic focuses on Bourdain’s early life, specifically the summer of 1976 when Bourdain worked as a dishwasher at The Chowder House and became introduced to the “dark underbelly” of professional kitchens. I loved Sessa’s performance in The Holdovers, and Matt Johnson has yet to miss for me. It also seems highly unlikely that Johnson’s creative genius is being directed toward a standard biopic, so I expect more from this.
My Predictions
Best Picture
- Wild Horse Nine
- The Odyssey
- Digger
- Dune Part Three
- Narnia
- Fjord
- Fatherland
- Untitled Eisenberg
- The Social Reckoning
- Jack of Spades
Best Director
- Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine)
- Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey)
- Denis Villeneuve (Dune Part Three)
- Inarritu (Digger)
- Greta Gerwig (Narnia)
Best Actor
- Tom Cruise (Digger)
- John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine)
- Sebastian Stan (Fjord)
- Matt Damon (The Odyssey)
- Josh O’Connor (Jack of Spades)
Best Actress
- Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning)
- Julianne Moore (Untitled Eisenberg)
- Michelle Williams (A Place in Hell)
- Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie)
- Sandra Huller (Fatherland/Rose)
Best Supporting Actor
- Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)
- Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning)
- John Goodman (Digger)
- Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine)
- Paul Giamatti (Eisenberg)
Best Supporting Actress
- Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey)
- Emma Mackey (Narnia)
- Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine)
- Daisy Edgar-Jones (A Place in Hell)
- Angelina Looking-Glass (The Rivals of Amziah King)
Best Original Screenplay
- Wild Horse Nine
- Digger
- Fjord
- Eisenberg
- The Social Reckoning
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Cry to Heaven
- The Odyssey
- Narnia
- Fatherland?
- Being Heumann
What are your predictions right now for the 2027 Oscars race? Share them with me down in the comments below!
