The Golden Globes last night capped off a week of important precursors for the Oscars—and friends, I think we can safely predict the Best Picture lineup.
Probably the most important takeaway from the awards show is the victory for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama category. The win could solidify his place in the final five in the Best Actor category at the awards and a spot for The Secret Agent in Best Picture.
Teyana Taylor nabbing Best Supporting Actress for her role in One Battle After Another is another huge victory after Amy Madigan (Aunt Gladys in Weapons) took the first televised victory at the Critics’ Choice Awards. This looks likely to be a two-horse race.
We have a new frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor. Stellan Skarsgärd picked up his first win of the season for his performance in Sentimental Value after Jacob Elordi shocked many with a win at CCA for Frankenstein. It feels very much like Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn are splitting votes between the OBAA supporters and clearing the path for someone else.
There were a few other slight surprises. Hamnet took the win for Best Picture Drama, but that’s more of a Golden Globes-ism than anything that I wouldn’t take too seriously. Sinners is still the clear #2 behind OBAA. Sinners got the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, so it’s completely possible voters just wanted to spread the love. The Globes are also intensely international now, and Sinners plays better domestically.
It Was Just an Accident blanked at the awards ceremony, losing in screenplay and international feature. You have to wonder if this might actually be the international feature most in danger of slipping out of the Top 10. But what would replace it? I do feel a bit justified in my early-season doubts that this film could sustain industry interest. The burdens of Neon trying to campaign for three films may be showing up.
The Golden Globes are just the latest marker in a week chock full of precursors, some that have arguably had a bigger influence on the race.
Bugonia made the Producers Guild of America lineup and dominated on the BAFTA longlists. Combine that with Jesse Plemons’ surprise SAG nomination, and it is clear the latest Yorgos Lanthimos film is making the Best Picture cut. The bigger question is whether Plemons could wrest the fifth spot away from Moura. Despite winning the Globe, Moura missed both the SAG nomination and BAFTA longlists.
While most pundits are tracking Moura to follow the path of his Brazilian colleague Fernanda Torres from last season, I am going to stray from the beaten course and say Plemons still beats Moura for that fifth slot. Torres’ win was a shock to the system that ignited a lot of first-time views and passion for her and I’m Still Here. But The Secret Agent has been talked about for months now. There’s no real reason to expect this to launch Moura in the same way. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the Oscar nod in a couple of weeks.
Speaking of international snubs at SAG—now technically called the Actor Awards—the group completely ignored international features, failing to nominate a single performance from Sentimental Value. That is a clear oversight that nobody is taking too seriously. Things aren’t looking great for Elle Fanning though, who also missed out on the BAFTA longlists. The snubs could make way for Ariana Grande to stay in the nomination five, or for newcomer Odessa A’zion to sneak her way in. A’zion made the SAG nominations and BAFTA longlists.
The wild decision from SAG gave room for Miles Caton to shine in the supporting actor category. It also cleared space for Kate Hudson in Best Lead Actress for Song Sung Blue. Cynthia Erivo and Amanda Seyfried continue to miss everywhere and are far away from getting in at this point. I don’t think Renata Reinsve is getting snubbed at the Oscars, though, so Hudson should enjoy SAG while she gets to be part of the group.
F1 and Weapons made the PGA 10, but most people expect these to be the two blockbusters that get nods from the PGA but miss at the Oscars. Still, these movies have to be in your top 13 at this point. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see something like Weapons slide in on Oscar nomination morning.
That’s all for this edition of Poll Position. Until next time, screenagers.
