We are officially under a week out from the Oscars ceremony after a wild ride through the precursors, with the SAG Awards rounding out the pre-show just last night.
I had planned to play “should win, will win” with this post this week, but my plans to watch my last three big Oscar nominees (The Brutalist, I’m Still Here, and A Complete Unknown) fell through and I didn’t feel like it made sense saying any nominee “should win” when I have missed so many major contenders.
Instead, I’m just going to put my cards down one more time on who WILL win, with some of my thoughts.
Best Picture
WINNER: Anora
I still think The Brutalist has an outside shot at this race, but Anora has clinched some precursors that make its win feel almost inevitable. Anora won the top prizes from both the Producers and Directors guilds, a deadly combo with major Oscar voting crossover. It also took Best Film at the Critics Choice Awards, showing even more support for the film. But The Academy handed out more nominations to The Brutalist than most awards bodies did by honoring Felicity Jones in the supporting actress category, so don’t be shocked if there’s an upset on Oscar night. You can’t rule out Conclave either, after it took SAG ensemble last night and BAFTA last week. But I wouldn’t put too much stock in that.
Best Director
WINNER: Sean Baker (Anora)
This race is just razor-thin, in my opinion, between Baker and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. I’m concerned that the drummed-up AI controversy surrounding The Brutalist could lead just enough voters to tip the favor in Baker’s direction (plus the DGA pick wins the Oscar 9/10 times).
Best Lead Actor
WINNER: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
There was a time when this race seemed pretty wide open. Chalamet came in hot with the release of A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo could have been recognized for his outstanding work in Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes could get the career narrative going for Conclave. None of that seems to matter at this point. I think it’s Brody all the way. Chalamet surprised at SAG last night, but I think that’s his sole win for the season.
Best Lead Actress
WINNER: Demi Moore (The Substance)
I tried really hard to stick with my guns and predict Mikey Madison here. It could still happen, but Demi Moore clinching the SAG last night just gives her so much seeming momentum. I think this is truly a two-horse race though.
Best Supporting Actor
WINNER: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
This has been over and done with for months. Let me just throw in a hot take: you can debate what a “lead role” entails, but Culkin is definitely not the protagonist of this film, and I don’t really find this to be category fraud.
Best Supporting Actress
WINNER: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
This was supposed to be a two-horse race between Saldaña and Ariana Grande, but there is very little evidence of this going Grande’s way at this point. With Emilia Pérez tanking everywhere else, it looks like voters are ready to give Saldaña her flowers. Unlike Culkin, this IS category fraud.
Best Original Screenplay
WINNER: Anora
Maybe voters could sense the momentum gaining for Anora and will try to spread the love around here to something like The Substance or A Real Pain. That would be fine by me, but it’s hard to predict anything but a big Anora sweep right now.
Best Adapted Screenplay
WINNER: Conclave
This isn’t really seen as a competitive category and Conclave has had this in the bag for quite a while.
Best Animated Feature
WINNER: The Wild Robot
Sorry, Flow. The Globes got your hopes up, but this was never really a fair fight.
Best Cinematography
WINNER: Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)
This is just a hunch, probably a wrong one. Had to put something. For what it’s worth, Maria took the win last night at the American Society of Cinematography or whatever it’s called.
Best Score
WINNER: The Brutalist
That score is so clearly superior from the trailers alone, I think this is a pretty easy win for the movie that will probably finish as runner-up for Best Picture.
What do your final Oscars predictions look like?
