This is another category that will probably be wildly different between the Oscars and our SAWards, so there’s a lot of ground to cover in this edition. This is a wild race in general, so even with all these mentions, I’m bound to leave out someone that others think could compete. Let’s dive in.
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Culkin is starting to look like he could run away with this Oscar after nabbing plenty of precursors, plus the film itself is starting to gain traction in the Best Picture category as well. If it slips in, it only boosts Culkin’s odds of taking home a little golden man. A Real Pain is not widely available right now, so it’s hard to say if Culkin can find his way into the Sawwy race.
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
There’s a lot of love being lavished on Pearce’s performance in The Brutalist, which I still believe is shaping up to be a Best Picture frontrunner. I’ve said time and again that I don’t expect the film to be widely available in time to compete in the SAWards, so this is an Oscars-only prediction.
Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two)
On the flip side, Austin Butler has no shot at getting an Oscar nomination, but I have to believe the hype for his performance as Feyd-Rautha in Dune: Part Two remains even so many months since the movie released. This is a thin category as far as Sawwys go as far as I can tell, so it’s worth a shot to predict Butler.
Jesse Plemons (Civil War)
For my money, we should honor Jesse Plemons with a slot at the SAWards. He is not getting Oscar love, which is not surprising since Civil War has been out for months, is divisive and he has such a small role. But at the time the movie came out, everybody was talking about how his small scene stole the whole film. He has such an unsettling performance, he needs recognition somewhere.
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
This could be the only overlap between the Oscars and the SAWards, or Maclin could completely miss in both awards bodies. Maclin’s story is inspiring, going from being locked up in Sing Sing prison to starring as himself in Sing Sing the film about his unlikely affinity for the performance arts. There’s some heat behind him here, and he is right in that bubble for an Oscar spot.
Dennis Quaid (The Substance)
The only surefire lock when it comes to the Sawwys, everyone here loves The Substance and there’s a particular appreciation here for Quaid’s performance that is lacking at the Oscar level. I would be shocked if Quaid misses. Go ahead and pen him in.
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
The immediate reaction to Gladiator II was that Denzel would not just be nominated, but would win the best supporting actor Oscar for his role. That speculation has cooled, but he still is comfortably expected to garner a nomination. It seems like enough of our writers would probably check out Gladiator to see and nominate his performance, but then again, I haven’t seen it yet myself. It’s a late release that it would be easy to see slipping by without enough votes to get in.
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Put Borisov on the bubble for both the Oscars and SAWards. With Anora now being available digitally, I have some hopes more of our contributors will give it a shot before voting at the end of January. If they see it, I have high hopes that they will be as enthused about Borisov’s performance as the mild henchman Igor as I was, and put him in. There’s a good shot he will get somewhere in the Oscar five unless pushed out by a bigger name.
Josh O’Connor (Challengers)
I still haven’t seen Challengers, but from what I understand, O’Connor is the more likely actor of the trio to get a supporting nod, but you can’t count out Mike Faist either. This movie just has the love and attention it needs here to nab a nomination like this.
Chis Hemsworth (Furiosa)
I’m not convinced that enough people here have actually seen Furiosa or plan to in time for the SAWards vote, but Hemsworth’s performance is reportedly the best thing about the movie and his name is recognizable. I could definitely see SAW writers voting in someone who played a character named Dementus.
Nicolas Cage (Longlegs)
This one has come up a bit in SAWards talk. Cage certainly transforms to play the creepy titular serial killer Longlegs, and he is genuinely unnerving. I don’t know, it could happen? I’m not sure yet how many people are thinking this way, but it would be a fun nomination.
Predictions
Oscars
- Kieran Culkin
- Guy Pearce
- Denzel Washington
- Clarence Maclin
- Yura Borisov
SAWards
- Dennis Quaid
- Austin Butler
- Jesse Plemons
- Clarence Maclin
- Yura Borisov
My Five
- Clarence Maclin
- Jesse Plemons
- Dennis Quaid
- Yura Borisov
- UNKNOWN
